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Archive | April, 2010

Post election – what is going to happen?

Whoever ‘wins’ some things will be more or less assured. There will be ‘pressure from bond market’ about our debt. At least that is how it will be generally reported. In fact it will be something quite different. It will be pressure created on the bond market by investment banks and others speculating on the […]

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Goldman Down grade shocks markets.

Not often I write about trading events as they happen. But I’ll make an exception today. S&P just downgraded Goldman Sachs shares from hold to sell with a negative outlook. The outlook is perhaps even more interesting than the actual downgrade. They revised their share estimate down from $190 to $140. Within seconds the markets […]

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Euro debts – livin’ LARGE in euro land.

A brief peek into euro land debt might give a picture of what to expect in the next few months. Everyone keeps talking about how Germany will/must/can bail out Greece – oh and France as well of course. I think before we feel the solution is at hand if only Germany would grasp it, we […]

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Miraculous or suspicious – Italian bond sales and market rallies.

A couple of days ago in ‘Europe’s non-linear moment, I mentioned how Italy suddenly had a very nearly failed debt auction. Only just enough buyers to cover the debt. Failed auctions are bad news. At this time seriously bad news. Today Italy had another auction. It was, as one ‘strategist’ was quoted as saying, “… […]

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Oz and China – bubbles and bollocks

China recently introduced new restrictions and prohibitions on banks lending for THIRD homes. So no property bubble there then. A week or so later , earlier this week the Australian government said it was tightening rules on foreign nationals buying properties in Australia. The Prime minister, who was the one who relaxed the rules a […]

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A further note about Spain.

Everyone was taken by surprise by the Spanish downgrade. No one more so than the Spanish. But I believe the reasons for the downgrade do lend suport to what I was arguing in “Peering over the Cliff”. There I argued that the big indebted banks in every country would not survive by seeking profit in […]

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Spreading ripples – from Greece and Spain

S&P downgrades Spain. Obama is said to be concerned about the European situation and the media are trumpeting how ‘we’ have already made a profit on our bail out of the banks. These things are related. Spain is downgraded. Why? Spain has less debt than Greece and more earning power than Portugal. But it has […]

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Peering over the cliff – after Greece, who?

I know Greece is the main story today. But for that reason it is being covered by all the main outlets. What can I add? I don’t have their contacts or man power. So I think I can best help by looking ahead a little. While Greece and Germany are locked together in an unhappy […]

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Greece and Europe’s non-linear moment.

So Greek sovereign debt is now junk. Which means they not only can’t borrow on the markets, but also can’t now borrow from the ECB. EBC won’t accept junk bonds. So with the Greek National bank unable to borrow, Greece’s banking and financial sector is also unable to borrow. Which is at least part of […]

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Euro Debt Contagion

Despite all the assurances from the IMF and the EU that ‘Everything is fine, Greece is going to be bailed-out, reprimanded, forced to make cuts that would make your gonads shrivel and made to write out 64 Billion times, ‘I shall not lie about my debt”, despite all that, today the yield (the interest rate […]

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