Author name: Golem XIV

Monday the journalists and experts will focus on the EU bank bail-out. At €70 billion it is laughably small. Too little, too late will be the summary from the markets. Its a bit like setting a Chihuahua to guard a room full of Rottweilers. It’s a snack not a deterrent! For me, this is not […]

How long will any coalition last? That is the question most pressing for the bond market. They already know, whatever the complexion of the coalition, it will not be able to withstand huge public unrest if any were to surface. A Conservative led coalition will be more pliable when it comes to cuts, of course.

The EU leaders met and today confirmed they are going to set up a new fund to, as Jose Barroso, the Commission Head said. “defend the euro at all costs.” Oh dear. Politicians still think this is about saving the euro and stabilising the system. In fairness, I am sure many in the banks and

It looks very much as if we are in for a rough few weeks at least. So I wondered if now might be a good time to consider what “rough” means in trading terms? Rough means volatile. So what is volatility to modern trading? In a word, everything. Volatility is why, what is happening to

There is a rumour going around that this weekend the ECB will announce a new loan facility of €600B to bail out the banks again. The rumour says the ECB will provide 1 year loans to 1100 banks at 1%. If it were true, and I don’t think it is, but if it were then

Oil is getting crushed and very fast indeed. Now consumption does not , can not change that quickly. Nor can people’s estimates of future consumption alter that fast. Which means this is about speculative pricing unwinding in a hurry. The big banks are selling and closing their positions. Who will get the check I don’t

London down 3.2% – 170 pointsTokyo down 3.1% – 330 pointsFrankfurt down 3.2% – 193 pointsParis down 4.6% – 164 pointsDow down 1.77% -187 points Losses everywhere are not only continuing but accelerating. They’ll pull back in late trading no doubt. But confidence? I don’t think so Yesterday the NYSE tried to tell the world

This morning I heard several political grandees and more than one pundit all opining, ‘Well, the message of this election is unclear’. Bollocks! I don’t know if these people are smug, stupid or deaf, but the message from the electorate could not be any clearer. The politicians think its unclear because they think clarity only

Could it happen again? Will it spread? Today is the day to ask. So I am. And my answer is, it could well do – with a Greek collapse or without. Today Italy revised its GDP growth projections downward. Now there’s a shock. In January it estimated GDP growth of 1.1% in 2010 and 2%

Ask yourself this – what’s to stop this happening again? Even if Germany agrees to cough up tens of billions and the poorer Greeks agree to be further impoverished for a decade, what is to stop Portugal, Spain or Italy, who are already on the same slope, sliding down to where Greece is now? And