Will the rise of China mean the fall of America? In a word, yes. Although decline might be more accurate. Why do I think this? Because China is about to launch the PetroYuan and when it does the demand for dollars and for dollar denominated debt will shrink. When it does, I question whether the …
We are off on our first family holiday in five years. I am more excited than the kids. We will be gone a month and during that time almost entirely off the grid. Before we go I wanted to say thank you – to all of you who come to the blog to read and …
Why would the central bank of Nigeria decide to sell dollars and buy Yuan? At first glance it might not seem the most interesting or pressing question for you to consider. But I think it is one of those little loose threads that if pulled upon carefully begins to unravel the hints and traces of …
From PetroDollar to PetroYuan – The Coming Proxy Wars Read More »
The Chinese authorities have, for some time now, been talking about the desirability of moving their economy from being overly reliant on exports to one which has a significant domestic component of goods produced in China for consumption in China. The central authorities have wished rather publicly that more investment and bank lending was going …
The price of gold is going down. That is what the charts, newspapers and pundits are all saying. What I think they are deliberately not saying is that the value and desirability, as opposed to the price of gold, is going up and will go up further. Make no sense? Well I think it does if …
I wonder if we are reaching what we might call ‘Peak Collateral’? That state when the creation of assets, which the market will accept as collateral, is insufficient to sustain the demand for credit. It’s funny isn’t it, how the terms we use, or are encouraged to use, have such an influence on how an …
A quick thought about the money printing and currency wars. When the current and on-going bank debt crisis began in 2007 we were told that the answer was to print up money (call it QE or ‘borrowing’ if it makes you happy) and give it to the banks. This would, we were assured, relieve the …
An Apology I have thought more about what I wrote in The Humiliation of Greece and have come to the conclusion that I was, in part, wrong. So I would like to offer a sincere an unreserved apology to all those who read it I would also like to offer an explanation of where I …
For the last few days most financial reporting on China has been like this article from the FT. Wen upbeat on China’s economy Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, has given his most optimistic assessment of the Chinese economy since the start of the year, saying that it had stabilised and that the government’s target of 7.5 …
For whom might it make sense to help Greece, as impasse with Germany hardens and Greece approaches default? And what sort of offer of help would make sense for Greece? Europe and in particular the Germans have painted themselves into a Teutonic corner. It will make no more nor less sense for Germany to blink …
