Comments on: China – the big change. https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/03/china-the-big-change/ Author of THE DEBT GENERATION Thu, 06 May 2021 15:38:53 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.2 By: Golem XIV - Thoughts https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/03/china-the-big-change/#comment-109 Wed, 24 Mar 2010 13:36:33 +0000 http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/03/china-the-big-change/#comment-109 oldgustaf,

Could be. I don't seriously expect CHina to go from over all export surplus to deficit in one quarter and stay there.

But it doesn't have to be an absolute deficit for this to make a big difference. It's all about IF China stops relying so much on exports and starts to re-shape its economy to focus more domestically.

We rely on them buying debt. That only has to slow to be important. Narrower trade surpluses, never mind actual deficits, at a time of ballooning debt sales would be trouble.

The only other thing to keep in mind is that Current Account surplus isn't the same thing as trade with us. It is a measure of all trade with all foreign partners. I think trade with Asia and oil nations will indeed go up. I don't think we should assume trade with the US, Europe and GB will all be on the up.

I might well be completely wrong. Please don't forget I'm not an insider nor an expert. All I'm doing is thinking out loud. I'll be as interested as you to see what really does happen.

]]> By: oldgustaf https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/03/china-the-big-change/#comment-108 Wed, 24 Mar 2010 11:37:58 +0000 http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/03/china-the-big-change/#comment-108 "…many economists don’t expect any trade deficit to last long, and China is still likely to post a large trade surplus this year. The World Bank forecasts that China’s current-account surplus, the broadest measure of its trade position, will rise this year to $304 billion, after dropping to $284.1 billion in 2009 from a record $426.1 billion in 2008." Wall Street Journal, 24/03/2010.

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