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	Comments on: The ECB&#8217;s defining moment.	</title>
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	<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/</link>
	<description>Author of THE DEBT GENERATION</description>
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		<title>
		By: Golem XIV - Thoughts		</title>
		<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-180</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Golem XIV - Thoughts]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 May 2010 11:08:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-180</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I couldn&#039;t agree more. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;But stupidity and the desire to survive the next moment, even if it guarantees worse later, is the essential weakness of almost all of our ruling political class. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I think the German&#039;s would let Commerz go if it came to it.  Hypo is their AIG. Deutsche is their Too big to fail.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I think we have to be open to the possibility that Germany  will sacrifice Europe if it has to rather, than risk all.  I don&#039;t hold this against them. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;But events rule now, not logic.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I couldn&#39;t agree more. </p>
<p>But stupidity and the desire to survive the next moment, even if it guarantees worse later, is the essential weakness of almost all of our ruling political class. </p>
<p>I think the German&#39;s would let Commerz go if it came to it.  Hypo is their AIG. Deutsche is their Too big to fail.</p>
<p>I think we have to be open to the possibility that Germany  will sacrifice Europe if it has to rather, than risk all.  I don&#39;t hold this against them. </p>
<p>But events rule now, not logic.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Lars Eirik		</title>
		<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-179</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lars Eirik]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 May 2010 11:06:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-179</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In fact, now is already much too late...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In fact, now is already much too late&#8230;</p>
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		<title>
		By: Lars Eirik		</title>
		<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-178</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lars Eirik]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 May 2010 11:01:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-178</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Dear Mr. Golem,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;On the personal qualities of Mr. Trichet, I have no opinion, but he probably cannot ignore that the institution he heads can be wiped out, and with it the political project that is Europe (and he himself dismissed and shamed). Letting ordinary banks fail should appear to be of lesser gravity. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Such &#034;raison d&#039;etat&#034; should also weigh heavily for Merkel, better have banks go under than nations and transnational projects, even German banks. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Yes, the devaluation scenario of the Euro may appeal to the Germans - but they are perhaps equally much apalled by the inflation that follows. What sentiment is the strongest?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I think (i. e. hope) that somebody in command will see that the line must be drawn somewhere, sometime, and now is the time.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Mr. Golem,</p>
<p>On the personal qualities of Mr. Trichet, I have no opinion, but he probably cannot ignore that the institution he heads can be wiped out, and with it the political project that is Europe (and he himself dismissed and shamed). Letting ordinary banks fail should appear to be of lesser gravity. </p>
<p>Such &quot;raison d&#39;etat&quot; should also weigh heavily for Merkel, better have banks go under than nations and transnational projects, even German banks. </p>
<p>Yes, the devaluation scenario of the Euro may appeal to the Germans &#8211; but they are perhaps equally much apalled by the inflation that follows. What sentiment is the strongest?</p>
<p>I think (i. e. hope) that somebody in command will see that the line must be drawn somewhere, sometime, and now is the time.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Golem XIV - Thoughts		</title>
		<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-177</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Golem XIV - Thoughts]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 May 2010 09:34:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-177</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Dear Mr Eirik,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Don&#039;t look to Trichet. I think he is weak. I think he will be forced out the moment Merkel calls his judgement into question.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Look to Germany. Yesterday Merkel stood up and said - my words not hers, but her sentiment - &#039;We are Europe. What Germany says is what Europe does. They all look to us for our money. Therefore we decide for Europe.&#039; And she is right.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;She has to decide should the ECB bail out Europe&#039;s banks and probably risk its own destruction?  Or should Germany tell the ECB to stand firm.  She will do this if she thinks Germany&#039;s banks will survive better than anyone else&#039;s.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Or she may think to gamble on the EBC managing to QE, keep everyone afloat and somehow still save the euro from destruction.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;She may even think, it has occurred to me, that she gambles on ECB QE and then devalues the entire EUro.  This I think would work potentially to Germany&#039;s favour.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Especially because her get out option is if it all blows up she print Duetsche Marks, withdraws and closes the borders.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Nuclear options indeed. But only a fool wouldn&#039;t have thought them all through.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;What thinkest thou?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Mr Eirik,</p>
<p>Don&#39;t look to Trichet. I think he is weak. I think he will be forced out the moment Merkel calls his judgement into question.  </p>
<p>Look to Germany. Yesterday Merkel stood up and said &#8211; my words not hers, but her sentiment &#8211; &#39;We are Europe. What Germany says is what Europe does. They all look to us for our money. Therefore we decide for Europe.&#39; And she is right.</p>
<p>She has to decide should the ECB bail out Europe&#39;s banks and probably risk its own destruction?  Or should Germany tell the ECB to stand firm.  She will do this if she thinks Germany&#39;s banks will survive better than anyone else&#39;s.</p>
<p>Or she may think to gamble on the EBC managing to QE, keep everyone afloat and somehow still save the euro from destruction.</p>
<p>She may even think, it has occurred to me, that she gambles on ECB QE and then devalues the entire EUro.  This I think would work potentially to Germany&#39;s favour.</p>
<p>Especially because her get out option is if it all blows up she print Duetsche Marks, withdraws and closes the borders.  </p>
<p>Nuclear options indeed. But only a fool wouldn&#39;t have thought them all through.</p>
<p>What thinkest thou?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Lars Eirik		</title>
		<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-176</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lars Eirik]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 May 2010 08:59:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-176</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[So large parts of the pre-exisisting Greek debt can at will be loadad on to the ECB!? And this is in addition to the recently pledged new money from eurozone members! Mon Dieu, c&#039;est grave!! &lt;br /&gt;But even in politicians&#039; warped world, even politicians  leant extremely heavily on by their banks and financial class, must prefer the implosion of their ordinary banks to that of their central bank. In business company law the risque is placed and contained to the the &#034;legs&#034; and the &#034;head&#034; is protected at all costs. It will be too humiliating for Germans and French to have to call in the IMF to bail out the ECB and have its austerity measures imposed on the whole of the eurozone. Surely somebody will now say enough is enough and close the vault.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So large parts of the pre-exisisting Greek debt can at will be loadad on to the ECB!? And this is in addition to the recently pledged new money from eurozone members! Mon Dieu, c&#39;est grave!! <br />But even in politicians&#39; warped world, even politicians  leant extremely heavily on by their banks and financial class, must prefer the implosion of their ordinary banks to that of their central bank. In business company law the risque is placed and contained to the the &quot;legs&quot; and the &quot;head&quot; is protected at all costs. It will be too humiliating for Germans and French to have to call in the IMF to bail out the ECB and have its austerity measures imposed on the whole of the eurozone. Surely somebody will now say enough is enough and close the vault.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Golem XIV - Thoughts		</title>
		<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-175</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Golem XIV - Thoughts]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 May 2010 08:35:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-175</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Dear Mr Eirik,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Have you seen PNB Paribas shares this morning? Profits and sahres up.  I wonder how much of the share rise is due to profits and how much to the ECB decision.  PNB say they have negligible exposure to Greece. Either they sold - who bought it? - or they mean negligible because they can now unload it at the eECB.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Mr Eirik,</p>
<p>Have you seen PNB Paribas shares this morning? Profits and sahres up.  I wonder how much of the share rise is due to profits and how much to the ECB decision.  PNB say they have negligible exposure to Greece. Either they sold &#8211; who bought it? &#8211; or they mean negligible because they can now unload it at the eECB.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Golem XIV - Thoughts		</title>
		<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-174</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Golem XIV - Thoughts]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 May 2010 08:17:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-174</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Dear Eirik,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;This rule applies to all banks.  Any bank who holds Greek bonds may now use them as collateral. It is clear, therefore, that this action was taken not just to bail-out Greek banks but to save other European banks as well - PNB Paribas has €5B of the stuff.  What is left of Fortis (The Insurance company) in Belgium still has €4B round its neck. Their shares lost 10% recently. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Of course European parts of US banks will be quick to use the facility.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It will be a turning point one way or another.  The ECB does not yet have the power within Europe to withstand the pressure being brought to bear on it by those governments whose banks would collapse - ie France and Germany.  If Trichet was a braver man maybe. But he is not brave enough. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Of course the ECB know.  But is there a politician who cares about this longer game? Or would they all prefer to survive today and let damnation catch up with them later?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Eirik,</p>
<p>This rule applies to all banks.  Any bank who holds Greek bonds may now use them as collateral. It is clear, therefore, that this action was taken not just to bail-out Greek banks but to save other European banks as well &#8211; PNB Paribas has €5B of the stuff.  What is left of Fortis (The Insurance company) in Belgium still has €4B round its neck. Their shares lost 10% recently. </p>
<p>Of course European parts of US banks will be quick to use the facility.</p>
<p>It will be a turning point one way or another.  The ECB does not yet have the power within Europe to withstand the pressure being brought to bear on it by those governments whose banks would collapse &#8211; ie France and Germany.  If Trichet was a braver man maybe. But he is not brave enough. </p>
<p>Of course the ECB know.  But is there a politician who cares about this longer game? Or would they all prefer to survive today and let damnation catch up with them later?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Lars Eirik		</title>
		<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-173</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lars Eirik]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 May 2010 05:26:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-173</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[When first it was publizised that the ECB accepted Grrek goveernment bonds in return for Euro liquidity, I got the impression that this was only an option for Greek banks, but now your remarks above seem to imply that any bank in the euozone may offload its Greek bonds on the ECB: What&#039;s the reality here?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When first it was publizised that the ECB accepted Grrek goveernment bonds in return for Euro liquidity, I got the impression that this was only an option for Greek banks, but now your remarks above seem to imply that any bank in the euozone may offload its Greek bonds on the ECB: What&#39;s the reality here?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Lars Eirik		</title>
		<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-172</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lars Eirik]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 May 2010 05:06:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/05/the-ecbs-defining-moment/#comment-172</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Yes, Mr. Golem, the &#034;the nuclear option&#034; rather forces itself on the ECB like the &#034;liquidity problem&#034; forced itself on the European governments in the first round of bailouts. I fear the people do not take to the street to protest on issues like quality of security held by ECB. Surely there must be some &#034;body&#034; inside the ECB to fend off such an option? What is the decision making procedure on such a measure and who is involved; politicians? Rubicon crossed will be disaster for the Euro and the EU. Surely this is as evident to the ECB as it is to you or me. The ECB wil be faced with self preservation or destruction. Can this be turning point, when the ECB closes it vaults and forces the institutions to face up to its bad debts, I wonder.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, Mr. Golem, the &quot;the nuclear option&quot; rather forces itself on the ECB like the &quot;liquidity problem&quot; forced itself on the European governments in the first round of bailouts. I fear the people do not take to the street to protest on issues like quality of security held by ECB. Surely there must be some &quot;body&quot; inside the ECB to fend off such an option? What is the decision making procedure on such a measure and who is involved; politicians? Rubicon crossed will be disaster for the Euro and the EU. Surely this is as evident to the ECB as it is to you or me. The ECB wil be faced with self preservation or destruction. Can this be turning point, when the ECB closes it vaults and forces the institutions to face up to its bad debts, I wonder.</p>
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