Comments on: Portugal does the Greek debt dance

By: Golem XIV - Thoughts

Golem XIV - Thoughts — Thu, 24 Jun 2010 09:15:25 +0000

RichGB,

I have to agree. This is where I find Ferguson a bit of an apologist. I can't decide if its because of his politics or his academic investments (in ideas I mean) or perhaps both.

But I agree that his analysis deson't do it for me. I think he is still very much within the denialist camp. Deny the debts, dney they make a difference, deny that economics is theology for a dead god.

By: RichGB

RichGB — Thu, 24 Jun 2010 08:59:32 +0000

The lecture by Niall Ferguson was fascinating for its *historical* viewpoint.
However, surely the modern crisis is unlike anything that has happened before, for two reasons:
1) the developed countries are not recovering from major wars – no public euphoria to usher in harsh new belt-tightening regimes.
2) most of the global debt has not been defined in terms of values on balance sheets – the academics can present as many forecasts as they like, but do they take in to account the real, undeclared values of financial instruments such as credit default swaps?

By: Golem XIV - Thoughts

Golem XIV - Thoughts — Thu, 24 Jun 2010 08:41:59 +0000

Morning John,

Now that is a useful page. Thank you!

By: john

john — Thu, 24 Jun 2010 08:30:12 +0000

Hi Golemxiv,

Love the blog as always.

It is refreshing to see someone looking past the next headline.

If you are sick of the spin put on every story you might find the following source of 'relatively' objective stats useful?

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

The graph function on the right tends to be scary when you look at unemployment etc.

Of course, all these numbers are easily available and the agencies coming-up with the stats in the first place can change their 'methodology'. However I find I get more solid facts out of that single web page than the whole BBC business section!

By: Golem XIV - Thoughts

Golem XIV - Thoughts — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 19:17:56 +0000

Thanks Ian,

I'll take a look. But interesting if he's saying similar things. I wouldn't have guessed it. I have always thought he was an out and out apologist.

By: IanG

IanG — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 19:04:48 +0000

I found an interesting article by Niall Ferguson here:

http://www.iie.com/events/event_detail.cfm?EventID=152

Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapses: Historical Perspective on Current Predicaments

Gloomy reading but riveting saying much the same as yourself Golem.