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	<title>
	Comments on: Swiss frank going to force Eastern European defaults.	</title>
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	<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/06/swiss-frank-going-to-force-eastern-european-defaults/</link>
	<description>Author of THE DEBT GENERATION</description>
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		<title>
		By: Golem XIV - Thoughts		</title>
		<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/06/swiss-frank-going-to-force-eastern-european-defaults/#comment-420</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Golem XIV - Thoughts]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jun 2010 18:10:19 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Dorota,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I understand.  It&#039;s the consumer&#039;s version of a carry rtrade.  The difference is that a carry trade, the banks can get out of when the interest rates narrow or even reverse.  The problem with a mortgage is you can&#039;t get out.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;For the moment P{oland is in the clear.  I don&#039;t know what exposure Polish banks have to whose currencies and whose debts.  But to your south things are not looking good.  Hungary is likely to default.  Bulgaria is going to be caught cheating for a second time.  The EU is giong to send a mission to inverstigat Bulgaria&#039;s accounts.  Could be bad. I think Bulgaaria&#039;s banks have been lying to the government.  Put Hungary and Bulgaria together and the pressure on Greece will jump. And Greece has no cushion to absorb any more losses for its banks. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;the add in  Rumania which has problems as does Macedonia.  All of this makes an unhealthy sea to Poland&#039;s south.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Things are going to get very rough in the next month or so.  I sincerely hope you and yours are OK. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Thank you for your comment.  I am always interested to hear your observations of the situation in Poland, what the media is saying - anything you feel like passing on.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Thanks again.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dorota,</p>
<p>I understand.  It&#39;s the consumer&#39;s version of a carry rtrade.  The difference is that a carry trade, the banks can get out of when the interest rates narrow or even reverse.  The problem with a mortgage is you can&#39;t get out.</p>
<p>For the moment P{oland is in the clear.  I don&#39;t know what exposure Polish banks have to whose currencies and whose debts.  But to your south things are not looking good.  Hungary is likely to default.  Bulgaria is going to be caught cheating for a second time.  The EU is giong to send a mission to inverstigat Bulgaria&#39;s accounts.  Could be bad. I think Bulgaaria&#39;s banks have been lying to the government.  Put Hungary and Bulgaria together and the pressure on Greece will jump. And Greece has no cushion to absorb any more losses for its banks. </p>
<p>the add in  Rumania which has problems as does Macedonia.  All of this makes an unhealthy sea to Poland&#39;s south.</p>
<p>Things are going to get very rough in the next month or so.  I sincerely hope you and yours are OK. </p>
<p>Thank you for your comment.  I am always interested to hear your observations of the situation in Poland, what the media is saying &#8211; anything you feel like passing on.</p>
<p>Thanks again.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Dorota		</title>
		<link>https://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2010/06/swiss-frank-going-to-force-eastern-european-defaults/#comment-419</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dorota]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jun 2010 17:54:32 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[I see your point about not contracting mortgage in, say, Francs if you are paid in, say, Polish zlotys, but I also understand why people do so: it&#039;s the huge difference in interest (2% vs. 10%, roughly), plus a steady appreciation of PLN against other currencies in recent years, to name two reasons. For me, it&#039;s quite enough to opt for the franc.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see your point about not contracting mortgage in, say, Francs if you are paid in, say, Polish zlotys, but I also understand why people do so: it&#39;s the huge difference in interest (2% vs. 10%, roughly), plus a steady appreciation of PLN against other currencies in recent years, to name two reasons. For me, it&#39;s quite enough to opt for the franc.</p>
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