And it contained my two favourite analogies, ships and the seasons!

Talking of seasons, I noticed Denninger waxing about Kondratiev which surprised me. I would have thought the theory a bit kooky for him.

As coincidence would have it, it was stumbling across a blog (or the 2006 equivalent)on Kondratiev 4 years ago that woke me out of my stupor.

Anyway, as the Housemartins used to say… I Smell Winter.

Unclear.

I do wonder the same sometimes. But my worry is NOT that things might fall over. That, however shocking it would be, we canrecover from. We have done it before, we would do so again. My worry is if things do not fall over but instead we are held to a decade long grind of paying off other people's debts so that those other people can remain in the positions of power and wealth they currently enjoy.

My worry is not just the widespread privation this would entail, it the hollowing out of democracy itself. THAT is my worry. Peopkle seem to think democracy is a given. That the rule of law, one law for everyone, is a given.

They aren't. They were hard fought for and we are watching them being quietly dismantled. Once the banks get accustomed to finance being outside of democratic control and above the law, then that is where those things and those people will stay.

That is my worry.

As for taking steps. Thos steps are sensible not because teh world might end, but because, even if it doesn't, we have left the era of low volatility and broad stability. We are entering a time of increasing volatility and sudden jholts. The governments, we can alrady see, can do little to smooth away such volatility. Thus the most sensible steps anyone can take are those which provide you and yours with insulation from the coming volatilty. So in my opinion none of your efforts will be a waste.

I'd forget encouraging the friends, just be happy with your thing . As the news very very gradually worsens, they'll think again on what you said then.

As Golem has said , the Financial System ain't NECESSARILY going to collapse .

It will maybe stumble on some more, but at any rate the precautionary measures aren't going to kill us here 🙂

Golem grows his own veg , and so do I , and with food insecurity coming along a bit of self-sufficiency is a start .

In WW2 the brits had "dig for victory" and the US " Victory Gardens" — examples for today.

yes, but without offering anything positive to anybody else.

What will be the trigger? It could be a broken window, bonus announcements or another corrupt politician. One shattered pane might start a rampage and be the impetus needed for radical changes to occur. Britain stages few significant protests. A British protest may be just the excuse needed by other European nations to do the same. Ach meine gott! If the UK are protesting then we'd better do something too!

Winter is a quiet period for many non-retail companies and the traditional time for mass redundancies. With cutbacks and tax rises who wouldn't be discontented.

The question I'm wrestling with is 'Have we now reached THE moment in time when we will look back and say that Britain had reached the end of economic growth as we know it?'

Why should it be now? Living in a relatively affluent part of East Anglia, I see few signs of a slowdown. None of my friends have lost their jobs, shops are relatively busy, restaurants certainly are not suffering and you still can't get a good plumber at less than 6 weeks notice. After an uncertain 2009, it seems like business as usual.

On a personal level, I've taken several major steps to try and disengage my family from the economy (sold some underused trinkets, bought a small farm, diversified what cash I have left). I'm encouraging my friends to consider the same – they raise a quizzical eyebrow and humour me as a maverick.

Is our pessimism overcooked? I sometimes wonder if I'm focusing naïvely just on information that reinforces my jaundiced perception of the times ahead.

Do you ever wonder the same, Golem?