Thanks for the offer its a very interesting one.

I'd very much like to do it.I guess it would involve rewriting the above in the main and editing it. I would need to figure out a theme to centralise the piece on as its easy for me to wander which can be good or bad. So yeah.

However I'm possibly immigrating to another part of the world in the immediate future so I maybe stuck for time.

Can I think about it, maybe start into it, and get back to you? I'd know for efinate then.Say early next week.

Fascinating stuff, thank you. Maybe you would consider a guest post adding your take on it all?

I was a wee bit off here but not that far. The news is getting worse not better so I might be right by now. There are 50,000 mortgages in arrears exceedin 3 months as off last March according to the central bank. However my claim that theres another 50,000 behind them is more speculation than fact – I think the the next report will reveal the true figure. Theres two PDF links in my first link. Repossession figures are mentioned too.

http://www.financialregulator.ie/press-area/press-releases/Pages/LatestMortgageArrearsDatashow63ofMortgageAccountsinArrears-.aspx

And a regular news article;

http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2782975;s=rollingnews.htm

Indusrtry Speculation ( educated guess ) on the same.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/kfkfsnauojey/rss2/

3) Morgan Kelly;

You may not heard of this fella Dave so maybe the Vanity Fair article is worth looking at first. It is long though. Morgan was an economist who wandered into the middle of the property debate sort of by accident made the mistake of using clear simple language to explain himself and was treated firstly as an outright loonie and then as a sort of strange oracle. The 2nd article of his below, his most recent, is particularly scathing of the Irish governments lack of spine in the negotiations for the bailout.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1108/1224282865400.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0507/1224296372123.html

and a Vanity Fair take on the whole celtic tiger shebang…

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/03/michael-lewis-ireland-201103

Actually after his ( MK ) second article 'aired' the FG led government were s******g it and wheeled out a proxy in ex-FG Taoiseach and now Euro apparatik John Bruton to go on the attack with some vague lies and stuff about keeping your word ( even if we didn't give it? ). They were scared to say anything themselves because Morgan had got it so right in the past. Nobody in the reaction could or did touch his argument though as far as I could see.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0510/1224296602550.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0513/1224296839491.html

( To be continued )

My apologies for the delay in getting back to this. This is going to be a three parter. I'll back quite soon with the other part.

Just to give you some background I'm a recently unemployed thirty-something year old architect. I studied and worked in Dublin and saw the rise and fall of the property bust from both inside the fence and outside.

1) Irish Housing stock;

The study I mentioned in my above post. In summary I quoted its figures more or less correctly. I had one of these guys as a lecturer in College so I know these were not industry people and spoke against the grain. The study was not backed up by a complete survey so this was used to rubbish it. The link also has tables showing information on national mortgages taken out here in the noughties. The speculation driving up mortagages ( and property prices ) is very visible as first time buyer numbers are shown.

http://www.uep.ie/pdfs/WP%201002%20W.pdf

The census summary documents which actually back up the vacant figures – p.18 to be exact. The problems are more exacerbated outside of Dublin.

http://www.cso.ie/census/documents/Prelim%20complete.pdf

Plus not so importantly heres an old report from the CSO from 2008 with some additional figures various matters including dwelling completions.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/construction/current/constructhousing.pdf

In short there is about 1.6 million households and 1.9 million dwellings with 0.5 million of those having being added between 2002-2008. Minus holiday homes and derelict homes thats about 0.25 million too many and 0.17 million above healthy as the 'market' goes.

Sorry for the slow reply here.

In my experience banks are still offering mortgages at multiples of income. They need to prop up the still false valuations so they don't take yet more hits on what they have lent out aleady. They are lending at a loss from the wholesale money markets. They need ( and the gvernent are with them ) if nothing else to keep the pretence of 'value' up.

Look at the simple figures in the CSO report linked above – 1.9 mllion dwellings & 1.6 million households. The only way to prop up the market is to create artifical prices because there is and will be no scarity of dwellings for the medium term and possibly long term future of the country.

I was a wee bit off here but not that far. The news is getting worse not better so I might be right by now. There are 50,000 mortgages in arrears exceedin 3 months as off last March according to the central bank. However my claim that theres another 50,000 behind them is more speculation than fact – I think the the next report will reveal the true figure. Theres two PDF links in my first link. Repossession figures are mentioned too.

http://www.financialregulator.ie/press-area/press-releases/Pages/LatestMortgageArrearsDatashow63ofMortgageAccountsinArrears-.aspx

And a regular news article;

http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2782975;s=rollingnews.htm

Indusrtry Speculation ( educated guess ) on the same.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/kfkfsnauojey/rss2/

3) Morgan Kelly;

You may not heard of this fella Dave so maybe the Vanity Fair article is worth looking at first. It is long though. Morgan was an economist who wandered into the middle of the property debate sort of by accident made the mistake of using clear simple language to explain himself and was treated firstly as an outright loonie and then as a sort of strange oracle. The 2nd article of his below, his most recent, is particularly scathing of the Irish governments lack of spine in the negotiations for the bailout.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1108/1224282865400.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0507/1224296372123.html

and a Vanity Fair take on the whole celtic tiger shebang…

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/03/michael-lewis-ireland-201103

Actually after his ( MK ) second article 'aired' the FG led government were s******g it and wheeled out a proxy in ex-FG Taoiseach and now Euro apparatik John Bruton to go on the attack with some vague lies and stuff about keeping your word ( even if we didn't give it? ). They were scared to say anything themselves because Morgan had got it so right in the past. Nobody in the reaction could or did touch his argument though as far as I could see.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0510/1224296602550.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0513/1224296839491.html

( To be continued )

My apologies for the delay in getting back to this. This is going to be a three parter. I'll back quite soon with the final part.

Just to give you some background I'm a recently unemployed thirty-something year old architect. I studied and worked in Dublin and saw the rise and fall of the property bust from inside the fence and outside the fence. I fought some dodgy plannings in my home town and won. FF were particularly involved but virtualy all polticans were in on the game. I got away from speculative work into state a few years back and hung on until recently enough. I'm off to collect my first 'jobseekers benefit' after I finish this in fact!

1) First links – Housing stock;

The study I mentioned above. I had one of these guys as a lecturer in College so I know these were not industry people and spoke against the grain.In summary I quoted its figures more or less correctly. The study was not backed up by a complete survey so this was used to rubbish it. The link also has tables showing information on national mortagages taken out here in the noughties. The speculation driving up mortagages ( and propert prices ) is very visible as first time buyer numbers are shown.

http://www.uep.ie/pdfs/WP%201002%20W.pdf

The census summary documents which actually back up the vacant figures – p.18 to be exact. The problems are more exacerbated outside of Dublin.

http://www.cso.ie/census/documents/Prelim%20complete.pdf

Plus not so importantly heres an old report from the CSO from 2008 with some additional figures various matters including dwelling completions.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/construction/current/constructhousing.pdf

In short there is about 1.6 million households in the republic and 1.9 million dwellings with 0.5 million of those having being added between 2002-2008. Minus holiday homes and derelict homes thats about 0.25 million too many and 0.17 million above nearly healthy as the market goes.

Now, Centennial Angst compounded by Millenial Angst (the 'millenium bug', Islamism and Islamophobia are symptoms) must be factored into any discussion of what may be about to happen.

Without wishing to appear alarmist, but with the hindsight of history, there appears to be an element of inevitability in the prognosis of rapidly approaching social, political and fiscal upheaval. It seems no longer a question of whether or not it will happen, but how violent and destructive it will prove to be. Is there not also a Darwinist imperative at work here? I am thinking of the behaviour of the Lemming when faced with overpopulation and the scarcity of resources.

This Depression began, in the west, in 1999. 9/11 allowed interest rates to collapse and for a reprieve for those who had access to loans to buy and pass on the parcel to a sucker. Now, the game is deny and pretend and take money out as fast as it comes in and say no one predicted it.

My anger is long gone. I see that history is repeating itself. But this is likely to be worse than any other depression, except in the BRICs. Their time may be coming to a close.

The Vampire Squid is choking economic life and it will require more fortitude than I see to alter this. GS is just an agent for others.