Portugal is on notice for another downgrade. But the real interest is in the reasons why. It’s not because of their over all debt. Its because of what Moody’s calls “its small and slow growing economy.” It’s the slow growing that should catch the eye. Moody’s are signalling that they do not believe in the …
This morning while the IMF was puffing on its announcement that it would meet and agree the plan and loan for Greece the Greeks themselves and the bond market, had other ideas. The Greeks went for the general strike and occupation of the Acropolis option. I think the socialist government is going to fall. For …
I write about China because the financial world relies on two pillars these days. The US and China. One is broke. So it behoves us to take some careful note of the other. Last week the Chinese government outlawed lending for THIRD homes. And from this weird fact comes a train of thought. To have …
Is this dip a real shift in sentiment? Or is it a blip into which a flutter of panic and a selling opportunity conspire to make something larger out of something intrinsically small? Is this when the big boys sell to the bag holders and book their profits? I don’t think so. Not yet. Not …
Europe hammers optimism – double dip or just a blip? Read More »
The ECB surrendered its last vestige of prudence over the weekend and debased its holdings yet further. The ECB agreed to continue indefinitely to accept as collateral Greek bank debt/bonds. What this means is the ECB will loan Greek banks and anyone else’s banks brand new euros in return for almost worthless junk Greek bonds/paper …
From the very start of this crisis I have lamented the fact that there was never any debate at all about the nature of this crisis – was it a crisis of liquidity or solvency – nor about what actions should be taken (should the banks be bailed out, or should they be forced to …
Greece took on vast and un-payable debts, lied about them for years and years, all the while while going more and more insanely over streatched and finally imploded under a weight of bad debts and empty assurances so large, they could not pay them. Not good. I think Greece has a case to answer and …
Some massive things are happening to the banks at the moment. I think perhaps people are so pre-occupied with Greece and national debts (as they should be) that they are not seeing this other drama. Of course they are not unrelated. First, bank failures in the US. The fever is getting worse! In ’08 – …
Whoever ‘wins’ some things will be more or less assured. There will be ‘pressure from bond market’ about our debt. At least that is how it will be generally reported. In fact it will be something quite different. It will be pressure created on the bond market by investment banks and others speculating on the …
Not often I write about trading events as they happen. But I’ll make an exception today. S&P just downgraded Goldman Sachs shares from hold to sell with a negative outlook. The outlook is perhaps even more interesting than the actual downgrade. They revised their share estimate down from $190 to $140. Within seconds the markets …
