Who are the bond holders we are bailing out?

The citizens of Ireland have been forced over the last two years to give the bond holders of Anglo Irish bank 20 billion euros. WHY?  The Irish government recently told its people the 20 billion was not enough and they MUST give the same bond holders another 10 to 20 billion euros.  WHO are these special people called Bond Holders that must be so carefully protected even at the cost of despoiling a nation?

I tried to find out. I failed. 15th October the British Blogger Guido Fawkes published a list of the bond holders.  I would like to thank Mr Fawkes, and thank Unclear for posting the link and bringing it to my attention.
So those are the names but WHO are they?  I thought this was something I could help with, to add my contribution to Mr Fawkes’ break-through.
It is worth knowing who the bond holders really are because the Irish government has said more than once that one of the reasons the bond holders had to be protected and could not, must not, be made to suffer any losses, even though it would be PERFECTLY legal to do so, is because the bond holders are pension funds for poor Irish widows and cooperative savings funds for orphans and ‘ordinary folk’.  A little poetic exaggeration there, but only a little.
This ‘widows and orphans’ reason why the Bond holders must not take any loss, was trotted out to bolster an earlier reason that started to wear thin, which was that if Ireland pissed off the bond holders then they would refuse to ever deal with Ireland ever again and Ireland would never be able to borrow ever again, ever, and everyone would die in penury, friendless and cold.  That first reason started to look like it might not hold, when the Germans started to talk rather too openly about how it might be best for all, them especially, if Greece did ‘re-structure’ its debts (default on its bond holders – a teeny bit).  When no one said it would be the end for Greece if it defaulted on the mighty bond holders, Ireland’s ‘the sky will fall in’ reason for not asking its bond holders to share the pain started to look like what it was, a politically motivated lie.  Thus the grannies and orphans had to be hurriedly wheeled out.
So, are the bond holders widow’s pension funds and orphans’ savings accounts?  Well actually, NO.  That too was just another lie from the morally degenerate and cringingly servile Irish government.
But don’t take my word for it. Lets look at exactly who the bond holders are.
But first be clear about my method.  Over all I have decided to compare Ireland’s wealth with that of its bond holders.
I have looked at what the named companies do – according to their own literature.  I have looked to see if they are owned by someone else and if so who and where the companies are registered and based. And I have looked at the sort of wealth we are talking about.  On this last point, I have looked not at their market value – because that, as we all know, is a matter of creative accountancy and is also often not something the companies like to list, but  at their ‘assets under management’.
Assets under management gives us a view of the total amount of wealth these companies deal with so we can compare it to the total wealth of Ireland. Its GDP.  Where a company is, in fact, owned by a larger one, I have used the parent company’s assets on the grounds that on the other side, Anglo Irish has been treated as a subsidiary of Ireland and the entire wealth of the nation is being deployed and called upon.
So, on one side we have Anglo Irish and its ‘parent company’/owner, Ireland and its ‘bond’ holders the people of Ireland.  On the other, we have the companies listed as bond holders and the larger companies who own them and who are thus the ultimate beneficiaries and interested parties in those bonds.
On with the show!
Of the 80 listed companies only 7 listed their business as dealing with pensions and being a cooperative savings institution. Of those, only 4 listed churches and unions as their clients, the others could well have been big pension funds.  The churches and unions in question were in Germany not Ireland.  Those seven companies are amongst the smallest of Anglo Irish’s bond holders.  I only have figures for four of the seven.  The largest, Union Investments of Germany, has a mere €165 billion in assets under management.
The total assets under management which I was able to compile from publicly available figures is €20,871,150,000,000.   That is an underestimate because the bond holders who turn out to be Private and Swiss banks don’t publish any figures.  So Anglo Irish’s ‘bond holders’ hold and invest MORE than 20.8 trillion euros.  Guido lists those bond holders as holding between them 4 Billion euros in Anglo Irish bonds.
Now, in my opinion both figures are likely to be wrong.  Certainly my figure is a large underestimate.  But taking them at face value Anglo Irish would account for an  one 5000th of the total assets being managed by all the bond holders.  So would even a total default by Anglo Irish cause that much, let alone systemic, pain and risk? Why are the ‘Bond holders’ and the Irish government so concerned that the Irish people be forced to take the loss and pay the debts for them?
Now lets look at the other side of the equation, at Ireland itself.  Well Ireland’s GDP before the crash, in 2008, was … drum roll please… €207 billion.  Or 0.207 trillion.
SO….  on one side we have Ireland whose bond holders, its people, have between them a total GDP wealth of 0.207 trillion euros.  Who are being FORCED, against their will, to pay Anglo Irish bank’s debts to its bond holders, who between them hold 20.8 Trillion euros.  The people of Ireland are paying to, and protecting the wealth and power of, people who have 100 times more wealth!
So where do these wealthy bond holders live and work?
Germany has the most with 15 of the bond holders. Who between them hold 5.3 trillion euros.
France is next with 10 bond holders.  Who have about 4 trillion to keep them warm.
Britain is third with 9 who have around 3 trillion.
The Swiss have 6 but who have about 8.5 trillion.
America has only three and hold only a trillion.
Other nations include, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, Holland Finland, Norway, Sweden, Poland, South Africa and Italy.
All these figures are very rough.  The figure for Switzerland is certainly under because Private Swiss Banks just don’t publish figures.  What we can say for sure, figures or no figures, is these are not banks investing widow’s pensions or orphan’s pennies.
So who are they? Well many of the bond holders are privately held banks, which list their activities as asset management for off-shore, non-resident and high value individuals.  To give you an example, one of the private banks is EFG Bank of Luxembourg.  EFG stands for European Financial Group which is the third largest private bank group in Switzerland.  It manages over €7.5 trillion in assets.  It is ‘mostly’, 40%, owned  by Mr Spiro Latsis, son of a Greek shipping magnate.  He also owns 30% of Hellenic Petroleum.  His personal fortune is estimated to be about $9 Billion.
Now there is absolutely no suggestion that Mr Latsis has ever done anything wrong or illegal.  And his holdings are, I am quite sure, perfectly legal and above board. But when we talk of Anglo Irish’s bond holders it is Mr Latsis and those with his sort of wealth who we are talking about NOT widows and orphans or you and me.  It is therefore worth remembering, the next time an Irish politician, or any of our politicians for that matter, say that some welfare payment can no longer be afforded, it is because the money that could have paid for it has been given instaed to the bond holders, people not unlike Mr Latsis. The Irish people are paying and protecting the interests of people like Mr Latsis over the interests of their own children.  And it is their own politicians who have arranged this.
Other bond holders call themselves ‘asset management’ firms.  The fifth largest asset management firm in the world is one of the bond holders.  Others are insurance companies. The 6th and 9th largest in the world, to be specific.  Others are the largest banks, Deutsche, Soc Gen, Barclay’s, PNB Paribas, UniCredit (who don’t appear on the list but own Pioneer Investments) and Wells Fargo (also not on the list but who own European Credit Management).  Then there is Goldman. No show without the squid.
Kleinwort Benson Investors is a bond holder.  But Kleinwort is owned by a Belgian holding company, RHJ which is part owned by Mr Timothy Collins. Mr Collins also sits on the board of Citigroup.  So he too is one of the bond holders the Irish people are ‘helping’.
Finally, a very large number of the banks who are Anglo Irish’s bond holders, are members of something called the Euro Banking Association.  All the large European banks, most of the large US ones, Swiss, Japanese, Nordic and some Chinese, are members.  The chairperson is Mr Hansjorg Nymphius of Deutsche Bank. Other board members are from JP Morgan Chase, RBS, Bank of Ireland, West LB(bankrupt), BNP Paribas, ABN Ambro, Dexia and Banco Santander.
Its a list which could double as the list of Anglo Irish’s bond holders.  The EBA was set up in Paris in 1985, since when it has been and is, central to promoting European Union financial integration and the area’s banking interests.  The EBA has close ties to the ECB.
I will leave you to digest this disgusting bolus of self serving wealth protection.
The only thing left to say is this.  The bond holders of Anglo Irish are a very good guide to the identity of the bond holders of ALL OUR BANKS.  The bond holders being protected, in every nation, on the advice of the banks and financial class, are THE BANKS AND THE WEALTHIEST OF THE FINANCIAL CLASS.
THEY are screwing YOU!
For anyone interested in a very different take on the financial crisis, the failure of the policy of bailing out the banks and what it means for us,  the book, The DEBT GENERATION is now finished and shipping.

UPDATE –

On the question of the veracity of the bond holders list. I have now had word from two people who both claim to have knowledge, one is an insider, and both say it looks correct to them.

Obviously the only way to be sure is to have each company on the list confirm. But short of that I think the confirmations I now have, suggest the list is true.  Though one of them also said it looked like the list was partial with some names missing.

102 thoughts on “Who are the bond holders we are bailing out?”

  1. dave from france

    Surely Guido's figure is senior debt of 3Bn ?

    The subordinated bonds already traded very low, couple of quick googles —

    "Anglo Irish Bank Corp. subordinated bonds plunged after the government said it’s working on ways of sharing the lender’s losses with holders of junior notes.
    The bank’s 500 million euros ($680 million) of subordinated floating-rate bonds due 2016 fell as much as 6.5 cents to 19 cents on the euro and were at 21.5 cents as of 11 a.m. in London, according to Jefferies International Ltd. The nationalized lender has 2.45 billion euros of subordinated debt outstanding after buying back securities last year at an average price of 32 cents on the euro." bloomberg 30/9

    "After previous buy-backs, Anglo Irish has about €2.4bn of sub debt. Depending on which lawyer, official, or bank analyst you consult, another €5bn or so of senior debt might also be at risk if Europe disallows further Irish bail-outs."
    FT 12/9

  2. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Frog2,

    Thank God you are reading! I read over what I had written and Guido's stuff two or three timees. As you can imagine I was a little concerned to get it right considering who I'm writing about.

    I think my brain just can't keep all the zeros in place.

    Rectified now. Luckily doesn't change the over all point but something of a nasty own goal never the less.

    Thanks again!

  3. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Ben Gabel,

    Thanks. I have sent it to an Irish MEP who I thought might be interested. But generally I find anything from a blog or blogger get's ignored. So the answer is, I'm afraid I don't know.

    We'll see tomorrow if it gets picked up from the blog.

  4. I'm glad i didn't comment yet, i thought i'd leave it till somebody with something of worth had something to say.

    Picking on Spiro is well out of order, somebodies got to pay for his mooring fees in Monaco.

    To help Spiro with his mooring fees CLICK HERE

    I felt sick reading that.

    I'm sure the lovely Sian Williams will be spitting fire about it tommorrow morning.

  5. Great piece of research and analysis. I hope it's been forwarded to the entire mainstream media rabble. Starting with Andrew Marr.

    Well done, Golem.

  6. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    I'll just be happy if someone in Ireland's political class started digging and speaking out.

    Yes, some publicity would be nice. We're working on it. If I can get out to talk to people I have hopes it would inspire a few more to question and maybe even buy the book.

  7. A tremendous piece of work – but your figure for Irish GDP should be .207 trillion,not .27 trillion – less than 1/100th of the bondholders
    assets. Yikes!

  8. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Hello Jaydee,

    Thank you for catching that mistake. There really ought not to be any mistakes but…

    Thanks again.

  9. I was just about to post my comment above when I noticed I'd typed billions instead of trillions.
    As you said yourself, "all the zeros"…

  10. Interesting that Goldman Sachs seems to be a bond holder if as i understand they gave advice surely that would be a conflict of interest and could we be sure their advice was unbiased

  11. You're very welcome to post your conclusions at politicalworlddotorg, where they will be read by at least 1,000 interested people including irish journalists.

    We're also looking at the conflict of interest issue. Its only about a week since Peter Sutherland issued a statement saying that on no account should the Irish Government default on bonds and of course Goldman Sachs was at critical meetings in 2008 at the time of the Bank Guarantee.

    I recall that the Domestic Stability Group said that European investors wouldn't touch Anglo Irish with a barge pole in mid 2008. When would it seem likely that these firms acquired the bonds?

  12. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    cactusflower,

    THAT is the questions isn't it? I don't know and I don't know who does.

    Thank you for the invite. I would be very pleased to post at politicalworld,org

    As you can see I am not an Irish expert. But I would be pleased to contribute whatever I can.

    I am angry about what is being done to Ireland.

    I don't know how you would feel about cross posting. I am not trying to be lazy it's just that some of the things have written are still very relevant, and I wish they had had a chance to reach more people than read my blog. If you felt intersted in the analysis in these two posts would you have any interest in allowing me to post them on your site for your readers to think about.

    http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/07/debt-pollution.html
    http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/09/our-new-reality.html

    If not, I understand. I will contribute as and when I can.

  13. soldiersofdestinydotorg

    Given the financial machinations of the NAMAD Irish developers,and their plethora of off shore companies in the Bahamas, Isle of Man, Jersey, Luxembourg, etc; is it possible that some of these same developers who were facilitated in destroying the state by reckless lending and compliant bankers-would have secured hidden wealth in these self same asset management firms that we are determined to repay?

  14. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Morning Soldierofdestiny,

    It would make sense that the same firms would have handled profits coming out as well as investment and bonds going in. I can think of one very well known Irish developer who has very good and wide links with lots of 'other' banking and investment jurisdictions.

    I very much doubt, however, if any even remotely questionable money is still in the same place it was a year ago.

    If I were them I would have put the money into a Walking Trust. I would have set it up via a Swiss bank and then have it registered in any of the off-shore's.

    Chances of tracking the money? About the same as BoJ's lending rate.

  15. would these/this be the same bonds/consolidation revenue fund we as sovereigns can access to 'accept for value'?
    by way of notice of intent and claim of right?
    If it isn't, i look stupid but hey , if you don't ask, great find tough, thanks

  16. Sutherland and Goldman Sachs have serious questions to answer in respect of his ongoing interventions in Irish fiscal policy and his company's advice at the time of the original banking bail-out. A misnomer if ever there was, I would characterise it as corporate extortion.

    Sutherland, as former Chair of AIB, has form when it comes to the banking sector's ethics. He had, he said, no questions to answer when it was discovered that his bank was not fulfilling its legal obligations in respect of deposit interest retention tax. This despite the fact that AIB's internal audit team had raised the issue – indivuals who then found themselves careerless pariahs in AIB HQ.

    I'd refer you to an excellent piece on this by Fintan O'Toole in the Irish Times last April.

  17. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Thanks Conan,

    It has been a characteristic of this debt crisis that in almost very country laws have simply been set to one side almost at will.

    It is why I fear that social suffering not withstamdomg, the greatest danger and loss we face is to our democractic power to govern ourselves and to hold the powerful accountable under a system of laws.

    Democracy is being securitized and sold off.

  18. excellent piece and thank you Golem xiv. Can you add a facebook share button so that individuals can post to Facebook, etc.?
    Gemma

  19. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Hello Gemma,

    I will try. But you should know that I am technically challenged.

    There is some stuff on Facebook connected to the book. You can get to it via the debtgeneration web site. There is a link to the site near the top of this blog.

    But I will try to add a facebook share button.

  20. Just came to your blog while submitting a Guardian news item on Ireland's debt to reddit. Its very interesting and it is a vital way to explore just what this debt amounts to and whom the bail out is really protecting. The same or broadly similar situation presumably is true of Spain, Greece and Portugal too. A mystery to me is why the Irish people are so willing to take this?
    Maybe a similar analysis could be done on Greece where they dont seem so willing to take it lying down. I believe there its largely German and French banks. Its hard to find a clear view on what defaulting would actually mean. If, say Ireland took this route would it be so terrible? Rogoff's "This time its different" suggests in case of Greece at least default has been habitual. Is it anything like as nuclear as they all pretend?

  21. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Hello Wriplit,

    No it is not. It is not nearly as nuclear as the experts would have you believe. Think of how many countries have defaulted or restructured and are still with us. Russia, Argentina both defaulted. Argentina is the model for what is going on in Greece.

    WHat will be nucler is if Ireland continues to try to abil out al its bank's bond holders.

    The Irish government is fond of saying how they have 20 billion or so euros stock piled allowing them to avoind having to face the bond market. They use this to claim how forward thinking they are and how everything will be fine.

    Fact is that 20 billion will last until the spring. After that Ireland will have to return to the markets to borrow and what they will have topay will be eye watering.

    they will sell – I think. But bear this in mind. In the next two years British banks will HAVE to borrow around about £700 billion from the bond market. That's just UK banks.

    There is a funding shock wave coming. The amounts are vast. Ireland will find buyers but they will be bnuyers who are looking for an outsized return. They will burn you to the bone.

    You are right. Greece is mostly German and French banks.

    If you can bear it you can search for older posts on the site and find quite a few articles that detail which banks in which nations are exposed to whose debt. It helps explain why certain nations are so twitchy.

    Basically Austria is a weak link among lender nations. So is Beligium.

    Nice to hear from you. Please keep in touch.

  22. Hi Golem XIV

    I just saw your reply and would be very happy for you to cross post on this to Politicalworld.org. A member has posted a link to your blog, and you would be welcome to use that or a new thread.

    cactusflower
    There's also interest in who the bondholders were a the time of the Banks Guarantee. It seems likely that they were similar (or identical) in character to bondholders published by Guido Fawkes, but because the Irish Government refuses to release the list, suspicion remains that it may have included some Irish names.

    Thanks again for discussing this.

  23. Why is this ot reported in the mainstream media, suchas the financial times?
    The readers of the financial times are the same asster managers.
    Why not other newspaers?
    Do yu think oor people run the newspapers. They are run by rich people. In many cases the same rich people who own the asset management companies.
    How do I realise this?
    I've lived in South America. The same group of rich people own the media, banks and politicans.
    Its just more obvious over there.

  24. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    cactusflower,

    Thankyou agin for the invite. I hope I can contribute something of interest.

    Chris,

    I htink the simple answer is 'they' don't think its news. They know roughly who the bond holders are going to be and think it is as it should be. As indeed they think bailing out and protecting the bond holders is as it should be. It wouldn't be considered news in a slave owning society to report "Owner starves unruly slaves". We might think it an outrage that should be cried from the roof tops. 'They' would wonder what the fuss was about and get more than a little annoyed if others did start to treat it as newsworthy.

    In our world 'Rich man sits in comfort while poor man shivers at his gate" is just not news. It should be. But if we want it to be then we have to make it news.

  25. This is a massively flawed article! Regardless of your standpoint on the issue, it doesn’t take a genius to recognise badly researched propaganda when it hits your inbox.

    The term “Assets under management” bears no direct relationship to the total net wealth of a particular company or entity in this instance because it completely ignores the fact that those assets are owned by, or involve comparatively sized liabilities to, third party investors. So to build an argument solely around the idea that these entities’ enormous amounts of “assets under management” would cushion them from the blow of Ireland defaulting on its debt, rendering it insignificant, is completely incorrect. And it’s certainly not a comparable measure to GDP in any case. You can’t just make a wild assumption about 2 completely unconnected figures and then expect the “model” you construct around it to make any sense.

    If you want a small piece of evidence to show this without having to look too far, the article provides it itself. The son of a Greek shipping magnate owns (among other things) 40% of a private banking group which manages €7.5 trillion in assets. By the crude rationale of this article his investment in this group alone should be worth €3 trillion yet his personal fortune (which doesn’t only consist of this asset and isn’t wholly made up of it) is only €9 billion. (“Only”, poor lad!!!).

    So, either the term "assets under management" isn’t an accurate measure of net wealth or Mr Latsis has some seriously crap investments in the rest of his portfolio that are personally costing him well over €2.9 trillion! If we apply the same rationale to how the real wealth of a company might be figured, then the factor of “100 times” Ireland’s wealth that the author talks about disappears pretty quickly.

    We’re in a seriously dodgy situation, there’s no getting away from that. But baseless rubbish like this definitely doesn’t help. People read it without really understanding it and that opinion and the “facts” presented in it become engrained as their own personal view. This is simply because (through no fault of their own) they’re not in a position to properly understand what they’re being asked to deal with. That's hugely, but not entirely, the fault of government. As far as I'm concerned, people who were at the top when this was happening should now be accountable for the reckless mistakes they made and the consequences it's left us with. But if we’re gona be taking to the streets about how badly we’ve been treated, then let’s at least do it for the right reasons! Sometimes it's possible to go too far to the left.

  26. Namatastastic.com thinks Guido fawkes must have a fantastic contact – why we cannot get this level of investigative journalism is the real question. The law in this country is an ass to say the least.

  27. No response to the (very interesting) points made by Tomorrin!

    I for one would like to see one.

    I am an Englishman living in France with a small private pension fund (less than £250,000 – so not one of the really rich). At present this is invested with Anglo Irish (at a low interest rate of 3.3%; and going lower).

    The comments of Golem make it less likely that I will roll-over the fund with Anglo Irish, so making a further tiny hole in Irish funding!

  28. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Tomorrin and 'f',

    sorry for the delay getting abck to you. I was away for a few days and then didn't realize anyone had posted a new comment here. I do check now and again but I'm afraid the blog is not set up very well due to my poor programming skills. So thjis may be too late, though I hope not.

    Tomorrin,

    So much huffing and puffing, especially because you give the impression we are basincally concerned with the same injustice. I really don't think I have damaged 'our' side of the dbate. Quite the oposite in fact. The above article went thoroughly viral and has made people think and question – which was its only real intent and value.

    When I wrote I made it plain why I was using 'assets under management'. As I wrote, I could not use market value of capital holdings because the figures are not available to the likes of me.

    I am also well aware that Assets under management is an amount while GDP is a flow. The fact that the flow is so small compared to the assets does, however, mean it would take around 10 years of Irish GDP flow to be in the same order of magnitude as the assets. That sheer difference gives the comparison some value.

    These are all side issues to your main one. That assets under management is NOT how much wealth these companies themselves have. Yes, I quite understand that. I did make it quite clear that it is the amount of money the companies deal with not what they own themselves.

    I agree with you that it makes for a most imperfect comparison. Apples and oranges you might say. And I'd agree. But when you have a man who has 10 000 oranges telling a man who owns one apple that he must give up his apple to help the orange man out of his debts then I think a rough and ready comparison is still instructive.

    You accuse me of propaganda. Quite so. And…? This is a confrontation or hadn't you noticed? We are flooded with bank propaganda every minute of every day. I am very much fighting back and make absolutely no apologies for it. I aim to offer a different lense through which to think about events. A lense not carefully ground by the banks to ensure things appear through it to their advantage. All lenses distort. Mine too. At least I make it clear how I have set mine up at the outset.

    It is a lack of an alternative view that is killing us. Arguments are won and lost NOT in the body of the discussion, but in the starting asumptions. I am sure you know this. I therefore choose my own starting assumptions and my own framework of how facts and assumptions should be considered. I will not meakly accept those the banks and their apologists have vetted and said are the only resposible ones.

    I set my own, I try to make it clear what they are and why I have them. People can then consider them and reject them as they see fit. As you did. And I am happy that you did.

    Second half below

  29. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Continued…

    If, however, by 'propaganda' you mean lies or misleading half truths then we will have to agree to disagree. I think I made it clear what I was doing and why, so there was NO attempt to mislead.

    Nowhere in anything I have written do I attempt to mnislead and I have never lied to make my case seem better than the facts can support. When I have been wrong I have come out and apologized immediately.

    The 'assets under management' give us a clear idea of the size of the bond market and the wealth flowing through it. It is order's of magnitude larger than Ireland's total wealth by any measure.

    One single bank, Bank of NY Mellon, which operates a large chunk of the CDO market in Ireland has $22 TRILLION in assets under management. This fact does not mean they are safe as houses and can shrug off any losses Ireland's default will bring. But it does show how large the forces and the wealth that is ranged against the Irish people.

    It is my opinion, which I have stated many times on this blog, that an Irish default will have serious consequences for the bond market, the bond holders and the banks. I do not make light of it. BUT you cannot get around the fact that the bond holders are NOT just a few Irish Grannies and orphans. They are private banks and wealth management companies.

    Much of that wealth is entirely fictitious being based on ultimately empty and fraudulent synthetic CDO's. That does NOT mean, however, that the Irish people are morally beholden to bail out and support this mountain of greed and stupidity.

    That is my point and I shall make it using whatever figures I have however poor they may be.

    If they banks want me to use better figures all they have to do is release them. Since they prefer to shroud everything in secrecy – not one figure avilable for the value or even the identity of the assets which make up the CDO's 'under management' – since it is all kept secret, they and you will have to excuse me if I use what I can.

    'f',

    I am hope what I have said here answers your inerest too and apologize for not repsonding sooner.

    Please stay in touch. I hope you both stay in touch.

  30. Perplexed since October 2008 about WHO ON EARTH THESE GODDAM BONDHOLDERS AND WHY DOES NONE OF THOSE EXPERT COMMENTATORS EVER GIVE US AN ANSWER, five minutes ago I eventually had the brainwave of googling in – well — "Who are the boldholders? – AIB"

    And up you came. Thanks. Still glued to the flatscreen.

    Carolus Galvienis

  31. Great piece Golem, thank you. I also have been wondering exactly who the Irish people were being screwed to the wall to protect. Not that I had any illusions, but the scale of the differential as you describe it has shocked even someone as cynical as myself.

    Knowing that governments – even well-intentioned ones, which are after all few and far between – are powerless in the face of business interests is one thing. Seeing the evidence is quite another.

  32. A great reply to Tomorrin. I see all the time on blogs highly educated comments like Tomorrin's. Right in a way but blindly missing the real point. I have begun to see it as part of the coming out of denial process. This late capitalist financial oligarchy is so entrenched and has had such stunning propaganda success it is seen as the norm. the coventional wisdom Galbraith described that comes to grief not with new ideas but with EVENTS! Thus to come out of the norm's comforting embrace is deeply disturbing. The initial stage is to try and deny through clever details and precise teminology and to thus sweep away the greater picture ( Oh the left brain is busy! ).
    I am waiting for when the view that you and others like Kelly embrace comes to its moment in Ireland.
    The idea; Follow the Money seems to me to be precisely the way that this will hit the public consciousness. The key to arouse real questioning. All the investigation we can do to discover just who is involved will aid this and people like Tomorrin should be adding to this effort.. because after all it is the truth one is after..and the more precise the better.

  33. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Wirplit,

    Yes I wish Tomorrin would come back and be a part of the debate here. He's obviously a clever chap. And we need all the cleverness we can marshal.

    Thank you for your comments. I think you are right about the dynamic of denial and emergence from it. I had not thought about it.

  34. I looked up Mr Spiro Latsis online, purely because he is the first you mentioned.

    "He is a longstanding friend of the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso , whom he invited on a trip on his luxury yacht. In 2005 this incident made Spiro the centre of a corruption scandal involving Barroso. The British MEP Nigel Farage requested that the European Commission disclose where the individual Commissioners had spent their holidays. The Commission did not provide the information requested, on the basis that the Commissioners had a right of privacy. The German newspaper Die Welt reported that the President of the European Commission, José Barroso had spent a week on the yacht of Spiro Latsis. It emerged soon afterwards that this had occurred only a month before the Commission approved 10.3 million euro of Greek state aid for Latsis' shipping company."

    http://spirolatsis.crazybillionaire.org/spirolatsis.php

  35. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Neil Craig,

    sometimes the truth is so bitter you wish you hadn't started. Nevertheless I thank you for finding this piece of nastiness.

    You really coudn't make it up.

    I think, if memory serves, and you should definitely check this first, but I think Mr Latsis is also a good friend of Mr Southerland.

  36. Golem, I have no objection to making the rich pay, but many of those funds have plenty of small investors, either directly or through institutions such as pension funds and insurance companies (keep in mind that life insurance is a form of saving, for instance). Yes, this means little old ladies living off their savings. But regardless of that, given the experiences we've had in the global economy in recent years, we should know that it's important to reward cautious investors and discourage more speculative behavior, which means it's in everyone's interest that bond holders, who are far less speculative than, say, stock holders, should be treated comparatively well. Ireland should have just nationalized the banks, even if that meant the stockholders were left with nothing. I'm not opposed to bondholders having to take a loss – risk is part of life in a market economy, and bonds do carry risks – but never at the expense of equity holders, which is the policy the Irish government implemented.

  37. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Hello Fred Linden,

    A few years ago I too would have said bond holders are not the same as their speculating half cousins in the stock market. But no longer. Bonds are the new playground of the speculators. I am sure you know this as well if not better than me.

    But that said I agree with you about trying to disentangle the cautious and responsible from the rape and pillage crew. Also important to try to protect the widows ansd orphans while still allowing the wealthy to do their bit. As I am sure they are just keen as mustard to do.

    But bail outs are NOT protecting the orphans. The bail outs are the direct cause of tens of billion of euros worth of pay freezes, unemployment, tax revenue collapse, tax rises and public spending cuts. That last means the orphanage has been shut and the old age retirement home is now not serving hot meals. THAT is not protecting the widows and orphans is it?

    By the time we are due these pension the finanial world is so concerned to protect that same financial world will have cut us to the bone.

    When the banks are insolvent – and they are – you protect the depositors up to a known and set limit. One that does not bankrupt the state but does cover 95% of the people who will have small amounts of money. Those fortunate to have larger incomces willnot have their money protected. C'est la vie.

    Then you start to value and sell off the banks assets. The income from which is used to pay down the debts. THEN, as you know, you start cramming down the bond holders, starting with the subordinate and working your way up to the super senior.

    You know as well as I do this is absolutely standard practice. There is nothing and never has been which says the bond holders, no matter how senior MUST not face losses.

    If the banks' losses are so great that this wipes out ALL the bond holders then that is just the way the contract th e bond holders signed is written is it not?

    The people get protected not the bond holders. And the threat that somehow if this is what happens, then the bond markets/holders won;t ever lend again is an empty threat. As countless nations who have defaulted can attest to.

    If western bond holders don't want to lend I am quite sure there will be lots of Asian ones who will. It's a rough old world. The bond holders just have to stop believing they should somehow not have to live in it with the rest of us.

    Which means that sadly some of those bond holders who don't desrve to lose, will. Just as lots of ordinary citizens who don't desrve to lose and never partook of the financial madness, will also lose.

  38. On the face of it this is nothing but economic imperialism with Germany taking the place of the now-defunct USA. It's been happening in developing countries for decades, but now they've developed and have elected someone with half a brain to run things, the uber-rich (pun intended) are turning this colonialism inward and attacking the poor of Europe.

  39. Germany is almost a dictatorship. The Germany govmint has turned against its own sovereign, the People, not only against the rest of the EU!
    Only the most stupid Germans are not aware of this.
    People of Iraéland, please don't give in! Maybe the day of awakening will soon be coming to the Germans too!

  40. wow, this is great information….it seems where ever there is a govt bailout there are rich, elite insiders getting the benefit but using regular people as the excuse. As if somehow bailing out investors is the the most effective form of social safety net spending and the morally right thing to do while spending money on actual people of need is supposedly ineffective and morally wrong.

    Here in U.S. they use homeowners as the strawmen excuse. Anything they do to supposedly help homeowners leaves them further in debt and only bails out the banks.

    In the U.S. the banks are seldom willing to take a haircut and just reduce the principle people owe on their houses. There are various reasons, like org servicing mortgages has perverse incentive to do things not in investors interest, and banks are trying to hide their insolvency by not showing losses. But there is a simple cure, the homeowner that owes far more than the house is worth simply stops paying the mortgage. We used to call it walking away, but people don't leave now because they have found they may get a few years of free rent before they get evicted. But then end result is default. Even people that can afford the mortgage but do not want to pay on an asset worth far less than the debt stop paying. It's called strategic default. However, our political class will not do the same with banks, and despite most of all of us opposed bank bailouts, they happened.

    I hear some in Ireland are leaving for better economies around the world.

    The Irish should not walk away, the Irish should strategically default.

    Sure you can close half your hospitals, raise taxes and pay your masters, but why? Because it would be immortal for rich to lose money on a bad invesment, but it is moral for old and poor working people suffer in a downturn? Only the rich should not suffer in this downturn?

    Defaults would harm many rich and poor, but it would help something that would be good for ordinary people, the general economy, the common wealth.

    Ireland, please have the courage and sense that U.S. citizens do not seem to have, and stragetically default on the banks and the rich investors. It will crash us too, but then we can all move on with our lives.

  41. Great piece of research and writing. Precision, clarity, and style. I will definately purchase your book.

    Business as usual here in the States. The illustrious Senator Johm Kyl is holding up ratification of the Start Treaty until the Pres. rolls over and signs off to extend the Bush tax for billionaires, to make the weath transfer permanemt.

  42. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    m2m,

    Thankyou. It sticks in my craw that they think it is morally OK to cut off unemployment because it would be too expensive but have no problem finding the money as long as it's going to millionaires.

    I wrote a piece a while ago taking about the human waste of unemployment. I'd be interested to know what you think of it from a US perspective. If you feel inclined.

    http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/nation-forsaken.html

    Thanks again for reading

  43. liberal_defender_of_freedom

    Is this being discussed in Ireland? Doesn't appear the Irish Times or the BBC is covering this.

    You'd think the public would want to know right?

  44. Comparing the GDP of a country to the assets under management is hardly fair. One is income the other is capital. At current interest rates, you'd need to invest about 10 trillion Euros to get the annual income that Ireland produces (200 bn Euros) even without the prospect of future growth (eventually). So the bondholders are collectively about twice as rich as Ireland, not 100 times.

    Also, the governments fear is simple:

    default on the AIB bonds and no one will lend to any Irish bank, or to the government. This will leave the banks unable to repay their savers (since the whole point of a bank is to borrow money (take depoisits) short term and lend it long term (eg as mortgages)). This is what leads to riots, etc.

  45. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    SL,

    Add up what Ireland has borrowed for the purposes of bailing out the banks. Subtract that from the total and what is left (a tiny fraction) is what Ireland's borrowing needs would be if she was not bailing out Europe's banks by the back door. See today's post called Sphincter-nomics.

    Ireland would not need to go to the bond market for a while given the €20 billion pot she has stored up.

    As for saying Ireland would not be able to repay her savers that is just straight out wrong. I think you know that and therefore should not peddle untruths because they happen to help to hurd people towards your favoured political outcome.

    Any bankruptcy, bank ones inlcuded, follow a set and prescribed path. First the government already has the cash to make the savers whole. 95% of ordinary depostors would be made whole. Those with savings above a certain level would lose. The considerably wealthy and large businesses.

    How many people in ireland have more than 30K or 100K teh %age depends on whicn level the government went for) in their savings account? A few percent of the population. So deposits are not at risk in a bankruptcy.

    Then the banks 'assets' are seized. They are sold off by the banks administrators to pay back creditors. Share holders get nothing. Staff get nothing.

    Then having sold the assets you cram down the bond holders starting with the subordinated bond holders and keep on going working your way up to the super senior bond holders. You use their money to pay debts until they are paid. Anything left is returned to the bond holders.

    Given taht many of the debt s being paid off you end up working out a percentage discount on the debt so as to spread teh load of losses more evenly. Usually it's a large discount (hair cut). If there is nothing left then the hair cut is 100% and everyone leaves looking like a grumy cue ball.

    That's life in the market. Evey bond holder knows this is how it goes. It is written right ON THE CONTRACT they were all happy to sign in the good times.

    What leads to riots is being forced to pay other people's private debts and being lied to about it.

  46. I have no "favoured political outcome". I didn't say the savers wouldn't get paid, I said the banks couldn't pay them. The government will repay some of them eventually, but in the meantime, companies will have no access to their current accounts to pay bills or wages; ordinary customers will have no access to their current accounts to get cash. Pretty soon people and shops will run out of food. That way lie your riots, or at least a risk of them high enough to scare governments away from letting major retail banks collapse.

  47. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    SL,

    Of course the banks can't pay them. They're insolvent. the government steps in and guarantees the deposits. As soon as that happens your money is there for you to do what you want with.

    So why won't companies have access to their current accounts? Banks go down the in the US every week. Three last week. The FDIC go in and to all intents and purposes the bank keeps running ay to day. Another bank takes them over and the receivers start to work out what is left.

    In the mean time all the busineses don't go bust. Their accounts are run by whoever takes over the banks affairs.

    This is what would happen in any country . If RBS went down the UK would not stop. Neither would most of the day to day services.

    To say that we can't let banks go down because it migth cause problems is to say there is no market and no rule of law – it's saying in effect the banks can do what they want, create any havoc they like and we will not touch them because we're afraid it might cause the ATM's to have a bad hair day

    No one is saying there is a pain free way out of the mess the banks have plunged us into. What I am saying is that when the pain comes the banks, the bond holders and the wealthy had better take their share of it. Any solution tah entails them suffering not a hiar out of place while the groundlings learn to grovel in the dirt again is NOT a solutoin at all.

    There is nothing impossible nor revolutionary about it. Argentina defaulted and their banks were wiped out. Argentina is alive and with us.

    We have nothing to fear but fear itself as FDR once said.

  48. Golem, great work. I've just come across your blog today. Coverage of this incredible story has been poor in mainstream journalism, particularly in Ireland. Admittedly, I don't live there anymore, but read the online versions of newspapers almost daily. They provide almost the same tepid consensus to agree not to point to the elephant in the room that dominated the latter half of the period referred to as the Celtic Tiger. The occasional brave economist who put his head above the parapet and questioned the sustainability of the property bubble was rounded upon and publicly vilified for "running down the economy".
    The present government's decision to guarantee a bank bailout in 2008 is one that will be discussed years into the future. Perhaps, as one of your posters earlier suggested, a route that Ireland could try is to challenge the legality of the government's decision to commit its constituents to a bailout of private banking institutions. I am not an expert on constitutional law, so can anyone offer a view on this. A plea to the High Court perhaps. It seems to me to overstep the legitimate role of an elected government.

  49. There's more American banks going bust now than a couple of years ago, it's everyday.

    Grumy cue ball 🙂 I've heard that's one of next summers fashion trends.

    Say it like it is m

  50. Does the fact that the Irish banks are now up for sale mean that the state takes them over only to clean them up–the cost of which is being relegated to the whole nation–so they can be sold back to the same class that brought them to collapse, if not to the very same people? Sorry if this is too obvious.

    It seems what's happening in Ireland is the reverse of what has been said above about mortgages–"the homeowner that owes far more than the house is worth simply stops paying the mortgage". The Irish people are forced to pay this crazy "mortgage" and then sell "the house" for what it's worth, if not much less, in a haste.

  51. A very interesting blog post, I was looking at a video by LPAC tv on youtube, and it mentioned about Inter-Alpha Group, being Irish, and posting on the Irish boards, and being laughed off as a 'basket case' or conspiracy theorist, I vainly tried to back up the real truth with links such as this and told to go elsewhere… sigh… the gov'mt are hell-bent on pushing this through… even our people do not trust anything they are saying…. tragic… fact is we're screwed to the hilt 350billion as was mentioned…

  52. also BTW, was drawing up the dots between Rothschild and how he charged our dept of finance for advise on handling this ttp://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2010/0629/1224273558461.html and could not help noticing my suspicion in relation to list of banks coinciding with PIIGS being a part of the Inter-Alpha Group….is that correct?

  53. The biggest BEAST in this game by very very far, that buy pretty much any govt bonds, any BLUE CHIP Companies shares and Bonds (because they are legally mandated to do through their prospectus, legally binding) are…… Pensions Funds.
    I have not looked at the details of mines for example, so I cannot say if my plans are investing in big Irish banks (although I would not be surprised) but this is what it is.

    As for asset management, anyone with an ISA would be worried.
    If Ireland and other european countries default on their liabilities, anyone with a pension plan or soem sort of Isas would be badly hit.

  54. GDP is income not wealth/assets. I don't know if there's a a widely accepted measure of national assets, but you could estimate it by taking a normal bond rate and treat that as approximately the same as the return on assets. The calculation would be (GDP in trillions/Bond yield in per cent)*100=assets.

    Obviously, Ireland's bond yields are crazy due to debt worries and speculation. If you take German 10 year bonds as the bench mark for a normal, developed and diversified economy, this gives you (.207/279)*100=7.42 trillion. Of course, when governments borrow they only do so when they expect their GDP/income to be greater than the interest rate, so this figure is actually lower than the level of national assets. Still, if your calculations are correct, there is a major disparity between our wealth and that of our creditors.

    All that said, this has been rather impromptu – I have a niggling concern that there are problems in using bond yields in this calculation, but haven't figure out what it is yet. Nevertheless, our 'assets under management' must be multiple times our GDP, and until you find a way of working out what the multiplier is, your comparison is meaningless.

  55. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Brendan,

    Thanks for reading. Sorry you find the comparison meaningless. We'll just have to agree to disagree. In return your notion of 'Ireland's Assets undermanagement' doesn't work for me – for two reasons.

    First the fraudulent valuation on these 'sassets' is precisely at the root of the whole problem. On paper all nations have huge assets – led by their vastly valuable properties. Until they are brought to market and then they are found to be unsellable. followed by their banks which are all worth huge amounts as long as no one is allowed to audit them

    Second – 'Ireland's assets' is an utterly meaningless notion for estimating the crippling effect of national debts on ordinary people. Most of 'Ireland's assets' are owned by a few people and most of the rest are currently being pledged as collateral against the debts being taken on to bail our the banks owned by the same bond holders whose assets are undermanagement.

    As I said. You believe what comforts you. I will stick with what I have come to belive. And as long as we can disagree in a civilized manner I am happy with that.

    Always glad to hear from critical voices.

  56. Again there seems to be a little confusion. When I was referring to assets, I didn't mean assets in the hands of the state – I meant all assets in the country, including those in private hands, e.g. labour, roads, factories. GDP is the return on those assets. Put another way, $20trn is the stock which the finance houses above own. That stock generates an income every year, probably 5-10%. $7trn is the stock that Ireland, the country owns. That stock generates an income every year, and it is that income which is referred to as GDP.

    Ireland's assets in this sense is meaningful when looking at our debts – the more valuable they are, the larger the income (GDP) they produce and the easier the debts are to discharge. But moreover, for the purpose of this article, Ireland's assets are the correct analogy to use with the assets of the bondholders.

    I may have been a little harsh in calling the comparison meaningless, but it isn't appropriate. Assets should be compared with assets, and income with income.

  57. Actually, I was the one labouring under a misapprehension in that last post. On a second reading, it seems we were both talking about assets in private hands in Ireland.

    Nevertheless, I still don't think that GDP is the correct comparison with assets under management. Comparing Irish income with Hedge fund assets is like comparing my salary to the value of your house.

  58. Hi David,
    great post. I couldn't help noticing one of the AI bond holders is the Rothschild name. Any relation to Amschel Rothschild who said: "give me control of a nation's money supply and I care not who makes its laws"?

  59. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Murphy\'s Mind,

    Welcome. As far as I know yes. And old Amschel is laughing at our poltiiicans for the engorged little pricks that they are.

  60. I'm so glad I found this blog as it clarifies some arguments that I've been thinking and occasionally ranting about recently. So, not to get bogged down in the niggling above, what is the solution? I had been thinking that it might be in the interest of the incumbent politicians of the G8 and other interested nations to grasp the nettle and agree across the board that yes, it might not be unreasonable to expect the bond holders and the financial classes to take a hit at this point. We are not talking about guilotines here, but surely anyone with more than a billion can afford to take a loss once in a while? SO how can this be done? Well, the democratically elected politicians of the nations about to enter a prolonged period of severe austerity and the likely civil unrest and dare I say it, war, that might follow need to ask themselves whose intersts they represent?
    They represent the ordinary people, of varing degrees of wealth, who elected them, not the handful of billionaires who seem to think they can control the world.
    What is required is that nations cooperate through mechanisms like the EU and the G8 to say that unfortunately the value of bonds will be readjusted across the board in most nations and that's that.
    What would be the consequence? Well, with nine billion you could probaly afford a very large mattress, but you are still going to need somewhere relatively secure to save the vast fortune you have left over after the readjustment. You still have to put it somewhere, so why not into some of the nations your henchmen(assett managers) have screwed over? Their economies will surely start to grow again and you can start to earn profits again.
    Can anyone give me a reasoned explanation as to why this wouldn't work? I know there will be lack of consensus but this is a deal which must be beaten out.

  61. Golem XIV - Thoughts

    Hello Joe,

    It could work. No reason it couldn't except that our political class show no signs of being interested in confronting the financial class.

    We need a new politics to make it work.

  62. Re: The Solution
    The solution is really quite simple.
    1) No fiat currency of any kind, anywhere. Hard money only.
    2) No legal tender laws.
    3) Speaking in terms of fractional banking, the fraction of demand deposits physically held on account (all hard money – remember, no fiat currency of any kind) must be 100%. No less. Demand deposits need to be placed in a vault awaiting demand, and NOT loaned out by non-owners.

  63. Is anyone really surprised ? Same old shit, different flies. It started with REAGANOMICS & Greenspan, then the AMERICAN DREAM “GREED” kicked in Lehman Bros. merely started the inevitable collapse of the house of cards.We, (everyone under 50) are FUCKED. We will still be paying for this on our death beds. Meanwhile, the guilty parties will have enjoyed RAPING us & dying of a champagne & caviar O.D.

  64. Did anyone ever stop to ask the question where the discount went… Im sure the bonds were originally soled at a discount; most likely the funds were discounted at settlement and the discount paid into the offshore accounts of bankers and politicians as fees for making the deal possible. I for one would like to see the dispersement list… Perhaps the politicians cant open their mouths because the all ate form the pie…

  65. Admiring the dedication you put into your blog and detailed information you offer. It’s good to come across a blog every once in a while that isn’t the same outdated rehashed material. Excellent read! I’ve bookmarked your site and I’m including your RSS feeds to my Google account.

  66. As someone who has seen his profession devastated by the current crisis and the previous property bubble that exacerbated it in Ireland, I’d like to say thank you for publicizing these figures and the identities of the bondholders.

    I have reposted the link to this article on Facebook, where I first found it, and also to my LinkedIn and Twitter accounts.

    I would urge people who want to make a difference to spread this far and wide – knowledge is power, and we seriously need some knowledge on all of these matters.

    There is far too much deception about bondholders, hedge funds, banks, over-the-counter trades, poor regulation and no tax on transactions.

    I pay tax on every fee I earn, yet banks and traders are allowed engage in multiple micro-transactions to manipulate commodity prices and share prices for no added value to the consumer and not one red cent is paid in tax.

    What keeps getting paid is the outrageous salaries of those who invent, administer and keep a lid on all these hidden advantages of the monied élite.

    And all these vampires do is suck money out of the system a system which should be bountiful for all of us, but instead is being sucked dry of substance.

    Not good enough.

    Every exposure of these criminals is to be welcomed.

  67. Coveney was on VB last night and he did not know the names as Enda claimed he did not either in the Dail. I will forward this list to all FG and Labour TD’s and Senators and bring them up to date lol. Wonder which one Noonan uses for his investments

  68. I submit that this isn’t about whether or not these lowlife bondholders should or should not be “bailed out”. It is entirely about slinging these people into jail on charges of economic and financial terrorism and making sure nothing like this ever happens again. Not ever. Not anywhere. Only the lowest of the low would threaten widows and orphans to ensure compliance with their extortionate demands, and if the people of Ireland – or Europe – let them get away with it, we simply deserve the slavery that we – and our descendants – will inevitably get.

  69. Having read this I believed it was extremely enlightening.
    I appreciate you taking the time and effort to put this article together.
    I once again find myself personally spending way too much time both reading and leaving comments.

    But so what, it was still worth it!

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