I realize that this is far more political than most of what I write but I have written about the politics of Libya and of Qatar before so I hope this will not seem too off-topic. Anyway I offer it in the usual spirit of thinking aloud and to spur comment and correction.
The argument between the Turkish and Israeli governments over the Gaza flotilla incident is intensifying.
Latest is Turkey has expelled some Israeli diplomats and there are now reports of breaking diplomatic, defence and trade cooperation. A quick read of the Israeli press and some blogs shows commentators keen to talk about how this is a ‘spat’ which will blow over because the Turkey/Israel partnership has been so firm and essential for so long.
And it is true that partnership has been both firm and vital to what little stability there has been in the Middle East. BUT I want to suggest that hto0se who say this will therefore continue may be wrong. I think they may be wrong because I think Turkey has ambitions to replace Israel as the regional power. Till now, and I say this at the risk of offending Turkish pride, Turkey has played the supporting role. Israel has been the international lynch pin and Turkey has been one of the top regional allies along with Syria.
But I think times have changed for both Turkey and Israel. Israel’s power is waning. Turkey’s is rising.
The protests in Israel are, I think going to become a turning point for internal Israeli politics. Netanyahu and the politics he represents is being challenged forcefully by a broadly based movement of unrest and desire for social and moral change. Israel depends and always has done on American support. That support is not as free flowing as it once was.
But my major suggestions concerns Turkey. Turkey in contrast to its neighbor, Greece, has done and continues to do well economically. Turkey controls the headwaters of much of the water that sustains countries south of it. The Caspian gas pipeline runs through Turkey not Israel. Turkey has nurtured a wide network of very good diplomatic relations from Iran, to Syria to the EU and America. And Turkey has a large military.
With Egypt no longer the regional strong man it was under Mubarak and with Jordan in a fragile state not wishing to go the way of Assad in Syria Turkey is emerging as the regional power. I think Turkey already has sufficient economic and political authority to challenge if not replace Israel as THE regional power.
I think as Syria crumbles it is Turkey which will fill the vacuum. And I think as it does it will have an opportunity to take a far more intelligent stance regarding the Kurds.
Turkey has borders with Bulgaria and Greece to the West. Georgia to the North East and Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to the East and South. Turkey, I suggest, is perfectly placed to become what it was in the past, the power broker between Europe, the Middle East and the Balkans.
I think Israel is being eclipsed by a resurgent Turkey on all fronts.
Nothing wrong with covering the polictical as well as the economic issues. The two are intrinsically linked. Gerald Celente predicted that the discontent would spread on the back of the economic problems, and would lead to the first war of the 21st Century. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen. But if there is any truth to Richard Heinbergs latest book, and we are hitting the limits of our resources (ie peak everything) then there is going to be a fight over the remaining resources as capitalism and capitalists seeks to control them. I find myself wondering, are we witnessing the end of capitalism? As it is based on a false premise, that the future will always be bigger, and there will always be another resource to replace existing ones as they are used up. In a world of finite and declining resources, there is a pressure to limit inequality and spread the resources more evenly to prevent mass hardship and suffering. Capitalism will not be able to achieve this. We could be witnessing the beginning of a radical change in humanity and the basic means by which we live and organise ourselves, and could beginning to question our basic necessities in life. Certainly is a world where we have to get by on less, the acceptability of allowing the top 1% or so to have such a disproportionate proportion of societies wealth will become increasely less acceptable. However, the key to change I think lies with the middle classes. They have bought into the whole myth of the trickle down of wealth over the last 80 years. As the cost of living increases they will begin to struggle to make end meet, and will begin to question the whole neo-liberal status quo. This will bring enormous pressure for change, because the top 1% can only run the show if the middle class allow them to do so.
I do not doubt Turkey has a lot going for it, but I think you are over egging the pudding.
Isreal is not really the regional power anyway, America is, (And to prove my point Turkey has just agreed to the US missile shield being on Turkish soil, not much reported in the UK)and I would say that the same issue for Turkey as for India is the internal ethic politics of the place with added secularism.
Added to that Turkey is still has a empire hangover in the middle east thru the history of the ottoman empire.
Also what is not being reported is that the main Egyptian parties are already talking to Israel with regards to the Camp David accord, so they obviously recognize Israels right to exist.
Is another world war inevitable? You'd like to think not but conditions are ripe and extremely reminiscent of the lead up to WW1. The question is where will it start? Turkey's recent posturing is pretty ominous. Hungary and Eastern Europe are always a hot favourite, then there's China and America and the hideous way that they are economically entwined. Either way it certainly feels like time to stock up on canned goods and rip up the rose beds to get cracking on the vegetable patch.
Even in a world of infinite resources capitalism is immoral and is always based on the exploitation of the working classes and is the source of pain and misery for all who labour under it. Capitalism recognizes the right of profit to exist. Profit can only exist by the exploitation people and resources, reducing people to mere units of production and consumption and discarding them when those profits are threatened is hardly the basis for a sustainable future on this planet or any other one for that matter.
There is no benign form of capitalism.
I'm new to your blog fresh after reading "The debt generation"
Do you think something like this could escalate to conflict between Turkey and Israel? Would either take the risk?
Alan C,
Welcome and thank you for reading "The Debt Generation". I hope it stimulated.
Personally I do not think this will develope into an armed conflict between Israel and Turkey. I think it will however increase the tensions within Israel's ruling groups will begin to tell internally.
Sean,
Maybe I am. But your point about the US already negotiating with Ankara supports my contention does it not? The the question becomes what is more important to Ankara ties with Europe via the EU or with the US via the military? Or is Turkey subtle enough to play both to its advantage without becoming the satellite of either?
If Ankara sides more with Europe or plays both, either of those alternatives is a set back for Washington.
Think you are right Golem. If Turkey can take a more intelligent attitude to the Kurds there are big prospective gains to be made. Iraqi Kurdistan is sitting on huge oil and gas fields ( potentially as large as those in the south) which can be linked to the pipelines already running through Turkey. Plans are already being discussed for this.
Efforts to resolve the arguments between the Kurdistan and Iraq over the oil licences already granted to Western oil explorers like GKP and Heritage are progressing as the reserves get proved up.
As we rush towards Peak Oil Iraq is bound to become a significant player again and Turkey is well placed to become a new powerful ally to the north.
I wonder what what has Turkey really got to gain from Israel now? Israel has overplayed its hand for a long time. Its hugely unpopular among the Turkish people now. Suddenly the Middle East is changing and Israel once so quick is looking slow. Turkey can surely see the writing on the wall.
The US is totally tied to Israel on every level all the way to having their Congress act like a non-voting arm of the Knesset.
If Israel attacks Turkey, this triggers NATO treaties whereby the US and EU must attack Israel. The Jews know this won’t happen because of their tremendous power over various governments. But this would then destroy NATO if Israel is allowed to openly attack a NATO country. The news about Turkey and Israel point towards war, not peace.
All of this has suddenly happened in the last three weeks. Ever since the Prime Minister fired his top military commanders and replaced them with more radicalised, younger members, the silence over the gross violation of Turkey’s sovereignty in the Gaza Flotilla attacks by the IDF is now heating up. Turkey should have gone after Israel after the event but the US diplomatic corps worked day and night to keep Turkey from taking any retaliatory measures.
The absolutely worse way to spoil a child is to always side with the brat when he or she gets into a fight. It is even worse when the brat attacks the parents and kicks them and pulls their hair. Israeli Jews can get away with even maliciously and deliberately attacking the USS Liberty and sinking the ship and strafing the survivors as they struggled in the water. After all of this, the survivors were forbidden to talk about the attacks and the US media carefully, to this day, keep it a deep, dark secret even though the internet blew off the lid long ago.
This is how brats are created: they get so used to doing as they please and making the rules so every encounter favors them and they can steal anything they want, kill anyone they desire and degrade any country they target. They do this with impunity and contempt towards everyone. One thing the Jewish community should avoid like the plague is developing an attitude of superiority over other people…this has a very bad ending since they are a minority religion.
Each year this continues, the brattiness rises. Each generation, raised under these privileges, grows more and more defiant, uncontrollable and destructive. Israel, at this point in time, is nearly utterly unable to do any diplomacy which involves give and take and making deals. Instead, mommy and daddy do this for them no matter how bad the brats behave in public.
Nice though it may be to fantasize about a war, what is going to happen is that Israel is humiliated by Turkey. Nothing more and then something in the news will divert attention.
But if flotillas continue, then expect accidents at sea and Israel/America rescuing survivors ….. Or a nasty tsunami! No reason for war, but as the Indonesians wanted and the Japanese did not, a tsunami can happen! Shocking, this earthquake business! Brazil and Burma moved capitals inland, way inland!