Syria – Cui bono Part Three – Europe and the USA

The official story about any intervention in Syria is that we are not after any benefit for ourselves. We are just appalled at the use of gas and feel ourselves to be the guardians of international law, freedom and innocent children.  Yeah right!

In part One I took issue with this ‘Simple World’ narrative. In part Two I looked at how Qatar’s desire to export its gas to Europe via a pipeline across Syria  and Saudi’s determination to stop it, had brought them both to support Syrian rebels but for entirely different end games.

Now let’s  turn to Europe and the U.S. and see how they too have agendas which may, on the surface, appear to be aligned but are not. Specifically why, of all European nations, is France so keen to go to war in Syria? And what American strategic interest might be served by allowing or even helping money and arms to flow to Islamist fighters in Syria belonging to al-Qaeda affiliated Jabhat al-Nusrah?

European Energy dependence

Europe needs gas. Russia has it. Only Norway provides more gas to Europe (35% versus 34%). As Europe continues to rely more heavily on gas, as it will especially if Germany does phase out its nuclear reactors, then Russia will, unless something changes, become the number one supplier. Europe also depends on Russia for 27% of its oil imports, 24% of its coal imports, 30% of its Uranium imports and Russia is the third largest supplier of Europe’s electricity imports. (Figures are from Congressional Report – Europe’s Energy Security. Many thanks to reader Pamela Law for bringing it to my attention.) It is clear, Europe is dependent on Russia to keep the lights on.

That dependence and power is not, however, spread evenly.  To understand who is dependent we need to see who imports how much and who from.

Using figures from 2012, Germany is the largest gas importer in Europe at 3065 billion cubic feet annually. Next is Italy with 2359 billion, then Britain with 1734, France with 1600 , then Spain with 1225 and Belgium with 1084 (half of which it uses itself and half it re-exports).

But this only gives you a partial picture because not all this gas comes from Russia. The chart below while a little confusing does give a clear general picture of who is dependent on Russia.

The lighter the colour the less reliant the country is upon Russia. The darker the colour therefore, the more power Russia has, potentially.

Spain, for example, though reliant on gas imports does not get its gas from Russia. Neither does Britain (at least not directly). While Austria, though its imports are small in volume, depends very heavily on Russia.

In fact the whole central block of Europe, from Greece and Cyprus in the South up to Germany and Belgium in the North depend on Russia. Austria is the most dependent of the ‘core’ nations. Austria’s weakness and Russia’s power were recently made very clear. Until recently Austria was going to be the European terminus of the newest Russian gas pipeline project – the Southstream. Southstream which is now under construction will run under the Black Sea into Bulgaria, pumping 2.2 Trillion Cubic feet of gas per year. To be the European terminus would have brought money and certain power to Austria. However, when the Russian gas giant, Gazprom’s purchase of a 50% stake in a the Central European Gas Hub (CEGH), which is in Austria, was blocked by the European Commission, Russia changed the terminus from Austria to Italy. Italy has traditionally had closer relations with Russia on energy. Divide and rule.

So much for the vulnerable.What about the powerful?

Germany  is Europe’s paymaster and arguably its most powerful nation. However Germany also relies on Russia for 35% of its gas imports and is Russia’s largest client.

Russia has considerable power over Europe and has every reason to make sure it stays that way. No surprise therefore, that 

Russia has not been idle when it comes to protecting its share of the European Natural Gas Market. Moscow, including the state controlled company Gazprom, has attempted to stymie, European-backed alternatives to pipelines it controls by proposing competing pipeline projects and attempting to co-opt European companies by offering them stakes in those and other projects.

It’s worth noting that Russia gets not only political power but also massive income from this arrangement. In 2011 Gas exports generated at least half of all Russian government revenue and half of that came from exports to Europe. Thus a full quarter of all Russia’s government income comes from being Europe’s gas supplier.

European nations have responded to this situation in different ways.  Spain is lucky, it already imports most of its gas by pipeline from Algeria, so Russia has little leverage over Spain from gas sales at least. You might have thought Spain would join the US coalition against Syria and Russia. But then again Spain has little in the way of an armed force, so maybe not. Italy has a pipeline from Libya but hopes to remain the terminus for Russia’s South Stream pipeline. So no surprise Italy didn’t join the ‘bomb Syria’ chorus. Italy’s main energy concern recently has been to make sure that in a post Gaddafi Libya, Italy is still a preferred customer.

The UK has chosen to invest in LNG (Liquified Natuiral Gas as opposed to merely CNG, Compressed Natural Gas  – the Russian pipeline variety). Britain is Europe’s leading importer of LNG, which you would have thought, might have given it considerable freedom from Russia. Must have been a surprise all round that GB didn’t join the USA.

France relies on Russian gas nearly as much as Italy does. However, unlike Italy, France has also been building LNG capacity like Britain. The largest supplier of LNG to Europe is Qatar.

For its part Germany has decided to get closer to Russia rather than diversity its supply. Germany supported the building of the Nord Stream pipeline  which connects Germany directly to Russia via a pipeline under the Baltic. This direct connection means Germany is reliant on no third party’s relations with Russia. But those in Europe downstream do rely on Germany. This can only add to Germany’s pre-eminence.

Putting this together it seems clear to me we have most of Europe already considerably captured by their energy dependence upon Russia. Germany is not going to anger Russia because of Nord Stream and neither is Italy, because of South Stream.  France is the only rebel.

 

France and Qatar – A New Alliance

Why has France chosen to be the rebel against Russia at this time on this issue? Because, I argue, it has seen an opportunity to build a new and powerful alliance with the rising power of the Middle East, Qatar.

Qatar has gas and could break Europe’s dependence on Russia. Qatar saw the Arab Spring was a perfect opportunity for them to build a regional power base and they seized it. While Saudi was afraid of change, Qatar supported it. In Yemen, in Libya and in Egypt Qatar has been  the major supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood faction within every uprising. All those countries are also gas producers and have stakes in gas pipelines. Qatar has built itself a sphere of influence in which it has cleverly fused its own economic future with the  burgeoning popular desire for political change.

I think France saw this before any other nation. America, I think, was not alert to what Qatar was doing because the U.S. has been too aligned with Saudi, oil, Israel and ‘fighting terrorism’/being afraid of Islam. Of the other major European nations, Germany is aligned with Russia, the UK with America.

If Qatar wanted to have some major Western Power as part of its alliance then France was a good choice. France was unaligned and has armed forces it is not afraid to use. An alliance with France would give Qatar a strong voice inside Europe and on the UN Security Council. And the advantages run the other way as well. By being Qatar’s main European ally France becomes the favoured customer for a rising energy producing power. It would also be seen by those nations allied to Qatar as the most trusted of the European powers. In short France would set itself up as a major player in Middle East affairs in an alliance which rivaled the US/Saudi alliance.

As an aside, not relying on Russian gas via Germany would go a long way towards redressing the power imbalance between Germany and France within the EU.

It is interesting then that Qatar, already one of the largest investors in France,  recently announced it would invest €10 billion in France and French companies, while for its part France smoothed the way for Qatar to become a memeber of the Francophone club of countries.

This is what I think, but is there any evidence that France has been working behind the scenes as I suggest? I think there is.

In Yemen, which is literally Saudi’s backyard, Qatar has replaced Saudi as Yemen’s major ally. And if you look closely at Yemen’s major LNG project you will find that France’s Total oil company is the majority shareholder owning 39.62%. Qatar, in turn, owns 3% of Total. In Libya, France was conspicuous along with the US and GB  as the first to put planes in the air and Special Forces on the ground. In Egypt France called for Mubarak to talk to the protestors and as this rather good analysis of French foreign policy in the Middle East, from The Central European Journal of International and Security Studies says,

Learning from errors in Tunisia, Sarkozy expended tremendous energies attempting (partially successful) to promote France as an unflinching, unapologetic champion of democracy and inalienable human rights in the region.

As the analysis points out when the first Arab Spring uprising began in Tunis, France was still very much aligned with the regime in power. This was a result of the fact that since the days of de Gaulle France has been ‘pro-Arab’ even supporting the Arab countries during the 6 Day War. Let’s not forget from the end of WWI until 1943 France used to control both Lebanon and Syria when they were both part of what was called The French Mandate.  Much as Iraq, Jordan and Palestine were the British Mandate.

France has had long, deep and quite complex relations with all the incumbent regimes of the region including Israel for whom it built its nuclear facility and its first bombs at Dimona. But France was quick to change when the Arab Spring erupted. After being on the ‘wrong’ side in the early days of the Tunisian uprising, caught supporting the government against the protestors, France was conspicuously on the side of the uprisings from then on.  Which meant France and Qatar found themselves aligned. Whether this was deliberate at this point or happenstance it doesn’t matter. I think they recognized their confluence of interests and by the time Syria comes along I think they were aligned and cooperating.

France and the USA – an uneasy ‘alliance’

If I am correct about this then it says that France may appear to be standing shoulder to shoulder with America on Syria, but perhaps is not actually looking for the same outcome. France will, along with Qatar, wish to see a pro-Qatar pipeline regime installed. While Saudi will not. What America will opt for is, I suspect, not clear even in Washington. Should it side with its traditional ally Saudi and oppose Qatar and curb its pretensions? Or could the US force Saudi to share power with Qatar and support the sort of regime Qatar and France would like.  After all, that option would help to further the US desire to see Europe not so dependent on Russian gas.  Or would such a change in alignment destabilize the shaky Saudi regime and even cause the fall of the House of Saud? If it helped France and Qatar would it find it was helping an independent minded France become a rival to US power in the Middle East?  I think the US powers, in Congress, the military, the intelligence agencies and on Wall Street are not all on the same page. I even wonder if Mr Obama is being played by one or more of those other US powers. It happened to Mr Carter.

What seems clear to me is that the regime change the US has said it is looking for, would not be the end of Syria’s troubles but their beginning.  The ‘rebels’ being supported by Saudi and Qatar are not the same as the opposition in exile that the US and GB are supporting. Saudi and Qatar are supporting al-Nusra fighters who are radical and anti Western. Those fighters may or may not accommodate the conflicting wishes of either Saudi or Qatar after any regime change. Qatar is also supporting the Muslim Brotherhood with which it has long and region wide links. There are enough conflicts of interest here to make peace hard to come by.

Now let’s add in the opposition in exile, the Syrian National Council (SNC). They are the voice of international money. But if the US does go for and get regime change they are the ones the US will want to fly in to assume power. The SNC is thoroughly wrapped up with the Washington and London power elite and to some extent French elite power also. A very good Guardian article by Charlie Skelton details who the SNC are and to whom they are connected.

In short the SNC is connected to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) think tank in the US and in Britain the Centre for European Reform (CER).  The Centre for European Reform is overseen by  Lord Kerr who is Deputy Chairman of Royal Dutch Shell. While on the board of the Council on Foreign Relations we find Robert Rubin, former US Treasury Secretary and arch Free-Marketeer, David Rubenstein, MD of the Carlyle Group, Madeleine Albright (well known peace activist – I jest), Colin Powell (another peacenik) and a gallery of Wall Street CEOs and assorted heads of financial and investment companies.

It could be that the US and France feel they can compromise on an SNC puppet government. Though I strongly suspect France and the US would be at loggerheads when it came to key appointments in any puppet, sorry, technocratic government of National Unity and loveliness.

A dark thought

Or – and here I want to end on a darker peice of speculation – some within the US machinery of power may have a more realpolitik option in mind. This is speculation but I think worth keeping in mind. I think certain parts of the US military and  intelligence have learned a lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan; that imposing stability is not as easy as they once imagined it might be. Instead Iraq and Afghanistan  showed them how a country riven with factions, some of them violent and fundamentalist, can, given enough arms and encouragement, keep a country in a state of barely contained anarchy and chaos for years on end. Just enough order to extract wealth but not enough to ever unify.

Add to this the lesson which I call the Algeria lesson. Algeria was perhaps the first, certainly one of the first, Muslim countries in which radical Islam took up arms.  There was a period when radical factions begot even more radical factions each more certain of its right to kill than the one it split from. I am simplifying I know, but eventually it ended with factions content to murder whole villages. In the end people became tired of the terror and despite some of the armed groups saying it would shoot anyone who voted  (their slogan was the catchy “One Vote, One Bullet”) people did vote.

The lesson I have in mind is two fold: you can create a place where you can suck in all the radicals to slaughter each other and should you need radicals for any reason – such as justifying an endless War on Terror with its necessary curbs on freedom – then it is a good place to incubate them where you can see them if not even inflitrate them.

I wonder if some see this as a possible and acceptable strategy. If you have a strategy for anarchy then you don’t mind starting a civil war. It doesn’t matter too much to you if it all ends in carnage. It could be helpful carnage, a sort of ‘Win/Win Slaughter!’

In case you think this is just too outrageous and I am slipping in to conspiracy territory – this was written by Daniel Pipes for The Washington Times under the headline, ‘The Case For Assad’,

…Evil forces pose less danger to us when they make war on each other. This (1) keeps them focused locally and it (2) prevents either one from emerging victorious (and thereby posing a yet-greater danger). Western powers should guide enemies to stalemate by helping whichever side is losing, so as to prolong their conflict.

The Washington Times is mainstream. Daniel Pipes is a well known neo-con whom President Bush (the W version) nominated to be on the board of the U.S. Institute of Peace. Sorry, I just couldn’t resist telling you that.

The quote was picked up along with others, by Press TV which is Iran’s version of al-Jazeera, under their headline of, Israel and client states want nobody to rule Syria, in which they blame the whole thing on Israel – as is their habit.

The idea also appears in a US military funded study done in 2008 by the Rand corporation called ‘Unfolding the Future of the Long War’. This document was quoted by another good Guardian article this one by Nafeez Ahmed in which he too argues that oil and gas are what is being fought over in Syria.  This, from the Rand document,

“Divide and Rule focuses on exploiting fault lines between the various Salafi-jihadist groups to turn them against each other and dissipate their energy on internal conflicts. This strategy relies heavily on covert action, information operations (IO), unconventional warfare, and support to indigenous security forces… the United States and its local allies could use the nationalist jihadists to launch proxy IO campaigns to discredit the transnational jihadists in the eyes of the local populace…

So could it be that some in the US and perhaps among the international elites think a controlled decent into civil war in Syria might not be such a bad thing? Create a sort of jihadist sand pit where they can all be so busy killing each other none of them will have the time to get on a plane to New York.

I leave you with this headline from the Times of Oman,

Hezbollah, Al-Qaeda lock horns over Syria Crisis

And these quotes from the article,

…Hezbollah is facing an existential threat — the gravest ever.

Its establishments, office in particular, are coming under rocket attacks; its strongholds in Lebanon are increasingly being invaded; people, known to be its detractors, are raising their voices to marginalise the organisation politically….Sectarian division in Lebanon is complete.

And who are these ‘detractors’? Guess who…

… Al Qaeda has found more than what it had ever aspired in Lebanon — a firm foothold. The ABC News reporter Alexander Marquardt says, Hezbollah and Al Qaeda fighters are edging closer to full scale confrontation. And in this many are seeing a tacit support of the United States and its allies. Of them a sociologist thinker and a research associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG) Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya is the most explicit. He says, the US and its allies are working to open a new front of the Syrian conflict inside Lebanon. The plan is to sow the seeds of sedition in Lebanon, destabilise the country and foment yet another bloody sectarian conflict like what we have seen in Libya and Syria.

Turn this around slightly and you can perhaps see a policy of turning Syria into what Lebanon/Beruit has been, what Algeria was briefly.

Such an outcome, if indeed there are those contemplating or already instituting it, would have nothing whatsoever to do with concern for the use of chemical weapons, caring for Syria or its children, or peace in general. Nothing at all.

 

77 thoughts on “Syria – Cui bono Part Three – Europe and the USA”

  1. Thank you for providing a context (in this trilogy) that is absent from most all other media (reporting) that I have encountered.

    Regarding this excerpt:

    …What America will opt for is, I suspect, not clear even in Washington. Should it side with its traditional ally Saudi and oppose Qatar and curb its pretensions? Or could the US force Saudi to share power with Qatar and support the sort of regime Qatar and France would like. After all, that option would help to further the US desire to see Europe not so dependent on Russian gas…

    I suspect that the US regime is very unclear as you state above and also agree with your subsequent remarks regarding the likelihood that Obama is being played by multiple factions. Having acknowledged that as well as having digested your concluding dark thought still leaves me wondering about the question of why the US is so eager to strike militarily employing justification tactics similar to the run-up for the invasion of Iraq – Where is the pressure coming from at this particular juncture?

    Perhaps you are cleverly reserving these 2-topics for your readership to debate in this blog:

    1) USD/Petrodollar hegemony and its role in this matter as well as the larger picture
    2) The role of G-SiFi’s (true balance sheet impact) in driving US domestic political agenda/ foreign policy

    Cheers mate …

    1. Hello Phil T,

      Not so much clever more just tired. I will read with great interest any discussion along the lines you mention. Maybe even join in.

      I think that unlike Oil, European countries already buy their gas in euros. I’m not sure what implications there could be for the dollar from any qatari pipeline.

      As for the banks they would love to get their hands on any good assets. War is always good for looting even if we call it by other names these days.

      1. I suspect that you are correct concerning European Natural gas import trade being conducted in Euro’s and/or perhaps a basket of (i.e. barter) arrangements. If there is anything that can possibly explain the appearance of the US regime being unclear at home and abroad at this juncture, might it be a symptom of real (economic) desperation by multiple factions (both governmental and private/corporate) who have achieved the lobbying status as Obama’s ventriloquist(s), each piping through his mouthpiece their individual narrow interests in the lingo of Syria War Speak ?

        This desperate US regime are applying the QE extend/pretend mindset to US$/Petrodollar hegemony whilst in denial that it has been and is collapsing before our eyes. (Perhaps this mindset is born out of the $ hegemony survival instinct and its the FED, etc. who are channeling this extend/pretend behavior into monetary policy through what they call QE ??? … and to make a leap — are now insisting on military action to keep it going …)

        Domestically, T. Boone Pickens had been actively vocal and visible concerning wind-turbine generated energy as well as strong a proponent of Natural Gas as strategic components of a new energy paradigm for the USA.

        While I am not advocating for Mr. Pickens, I am pointing out that he was the poster child for (a certain portion of) energy production reform in the USA (up until prior to the last Presidential election) and was the only entity to my knowledge who bothered to offer a plan in the public sphere ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pickens_Plan) that could at least serve as a starting point for a much needed comprehensive, strategic open debate concerning the future of energy and transport in the USA.

        Instead of that long overdue process occurring, the USA is stagnating in its decline and has been for many years now, for the sole purpose it appears, to keep the Petrodollar hegemony in place and to ride it into the sunset at the expense of the real economy – both domestic and global. This behavior is practiced at every level of enterprise and govt. in the USA and globally.

        (Somehow, I feel that anyone reading this comment already knows what I am struggling to articulate and that has been so well-articulated in Golem’s many articles and in the vast array of comments of those who participate here.)

        … There is more …but I am out of time at the moment … we’ll see if this catches on and moves forward …

        Best to all …

  2. I think that Russian gas can be a double edged sword. Russia is just as dependent on Europe to buy its gas, and sometimes it doesn’t require a competitor but just the potential threat of a competitor to allow the US (or the EU) the opportunity to manipulate Russia.

  3. I chanced by your blog from ZH and have ever since been here pretty much daily. I loved your analysis and loved reading it. Thank you for posting.

  4. Superb analysis. Another tour de force from Golem. I suspect that your “dark thoughts” at the end of the blog may have hit the nail on the head. From Israel’s perspective, what’s there not to like about Hezbollah killing Al-Qaeda? A descent into a prolonged sectarian civil war might even produce Sykes–Picot Mk II – divide the Middle East into a set of small statelets that pose no threat and are easy to control and extort. One thing is for sure, none of the powers involved in the conflict give a stuff about the ordinary people of Syria. They are just pawns in the Great Game.

    1. sufferinsuccotash, stupor mundi

      Funny you should mention Sykes-Picot. What’s happening in Syria now is a reprise of French policy under the Mandate, which was one of keeping Druzes, Sunnis, and Alawites permanently at odds with each other. But of course they’ve all been killing each over there for centuries so it’s really OK, right?

      1. Exactly – it’s divide and conquer once more. It’s fine if arabs or africans are killing one another – provided they don’t upset the apple cart of our selfish consumerist Western lifestyles. It’s appalling stuff really – human life has no value in the eyes of some people. Thank God for Golem and his like. I’d be completely in the dark about the causes of the financial crisis and what’s really going on in Syria if I was relying on the MSM.

  5. Plenty to chew on there, Golem. Did you read this report – that the Saudis offered Russia a cartel deal (“price stability”), on the quiet, three weeks before the alleged gas attack, if Russia would back off from supporting Assad ?

    http://www.independent.ie/world-news/middle-east/saudis-offer-russia-secret-oil-deal-if-it-drops-syria-29536492.html

    Prolongued induced controlled chaos across the oil producing regions does indeed seem to be the cheapest option for the West.

    1. Thanks Cass,

      I did, but felt I had not really got to the bottom of what was going on there. Saudi offers some sort of price fixing and ‘help’ with Islamic which groups Saudi claims to control and Russia says ‘no thanks.’

      And what of Saudi US relations? Maybe it’s true. If so Saudi is far, far more desperate than I thought. Or maybe the Kremlin altered the story to stir trouble. It was leaked by the Russian press first I believe.

      Something murky going on there, I don’t think I understand.

      What do you think Cass?

      1. I had heard (can’t remember where unfortunately) that the Saudi’s and Qatari’s were disgruntled that their proxy Jihadist forces had failed to make progress in Syria after over two years of fighting the Assad government and were concerned to have made so little territorial gain despite the financial support poured in from the Gulf states which amounted to some £2 billion.

        Putin, knowing this, expected Prince Bandar to literally throw in the towel (which was the expression used) when the two met in July, only to be confronted with, first, the generous offer to give Russia ‘a place at the OPEC table’ in setting oil prices if they abandoned Syria and Iran at the UN, and second, when that failed, a vague threat that the Gulf monarchies couldn’t guarantee the Russia Winter Games would be safe from Chechen terror attacks. Bandar also allegedly said that he was speaking with the full backing of the US government.

        So, I think Bandar has a time-limit in mind for the invasion to achieve success and that this point is rapidly approaching – Russian-Chinese veto’s were the remaining legal impediment to an invasion/attack.

        Overall, I think the Gulf-US-UK axis wants to bring about the ‘Somalification’ of the Middle East, though whether this would facilitate the building and safety of the The Nabucco-West pipeline is a moot point.

  6. The previous admin already copped to a flavor of that strategy; I believe they called it “the flypaper” theory (or something to that effect).

  7. What a great analysis of a situation which is obviously far murkier than the black and white story that we get peddled by our politicians.
    I got a bit lost with respect to the French, being strongly pro-Arab one minute and then helping the Israelis build an A-bomb! Maybe they just can’t resist the urge to meddle in an area that they still, deep-down, regards as their own.

    1. Hello Paul,

      Yes, Sorry I was less than clear on that point. The reason for the U-turn was a change of French President.

      France helped Israel under one of the two post WW2 Presidents before de Gaul – either Auriol or Coty, I forget which.

      When de Gaul was elected President he changed direction and supported the Arab cause.

      But you’re right France has had and continues to have complex and clever dealings in the Middle East.

      You could say, while Germany has always looked East, and GB West towards the USA (and continues to do so), France has always looked South.

      1. France has also recently re-joined NATO (after De Gaulle originally pulled out in 1966 for the reasons you give, cancelling a large order for Mirage III fighters bound for Israel), possibly re-locating the orbit of it’s foreign policies more firmly toward American-led interventionism, which at the moment ‘looks down but not out’.

  8. OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL

    In the TL;DR category for sure but I think applicable:
    This latest arrival of fascism on the world scene is informed by the same founding myth that fascism always relies on. “Society is weak”, goes the myth, “and the people need a big, strong, all-knowing government to tell (force) them what to do”. In this myth, the outsider hero, a man of the people from humble beginnings, comes in and in his all-knowing way whips things into shape. After all, he knows what is best for society, whether society may happen to agree with him or not. They must be forced to do what he says, because he knows much better than they do. This was the myth that gave birth to the previous versions of fascism in the last century: Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, and Mao all followed this same mythic trajectory.
    In this new form of fascism, however, we have a very different creature indeed. Born not in right-wing think tanks or working-class Munich beer halls, today’s version has a surprising source: the bowels of the Berkeley campus and so-called “liberal” Washington. This latest group bombs at will, their will, because obviously they know best. No sense worrying about niceties like checks & balances, no sense fussing with bodies of law that have protected people from tyranny since the Magna Carta. We’re at war, and they know best. In that war, someone officially asked their Pentagon who the enemy is. “That’s classified,” came the reply (so please get back to your salt mine, we got this). They spy at will, reaching into each citizen’s private affairs in ways the fascists before them in Russia and East Germany could only dream about, and react like cornered dogs if anyone questions why. Of course they need to spy on everyone everywhere all the time, otherwise how could they possibly remain all-knowing and all-protecting? And hey, we’re the Good Guys, so stop questioning us. As the Japanese government says on their website about Fukushima: Please do not worry.
    This latest group does not look like goose-steppers, which may be why people have been so slow to see them coming. Instead of brown shirts these modern fascisti arrive wearing Chanel suits, with the suave tones of the chic hipster (maybe we should call them Neo-Fash?). Their moral certitude is unshakeable, which throws people off the scent. But the scent is unmistakable: it’s there when Susan Rice, all Berkeley and Chanel and Hilary, coins the term “humanitarian bombing” without a trace of irony. Were he still alive you could ask Gaddafi, who had just received the UN Humanitarian Award and gave his people the highest standard of living in Africa, precisely what that term really means. The moral high ground, we are later informed by Ms. Rice, is to kill one set of people because they might harm another set of people at some future time. And only they can tell these people apart.
    Unfortunately there’s a ghost in the machine; somewhere along the way the moral wires have gotten crossed. The Egyptian military can slaughter thousands, indeed these Neo-Fashes themselves can slaughter tens of thousands, but in their parallel moral universe those deaths do not count. They do not fit the rules ordained in their unquestionable moral register of good & evil. Horrible death by chemical gas is obviously so much worse than horrible death by drone or by bullet. The deaths of innocents caused by some Other (so called because they threaten their worldview, their power, or just the profits of their shareholders), are immeasurably worse than the deaths of innocents they cause themselves. Ordinary citizens can have nothing to say about this little book, this book that governs life & death and the fate of nations & of the world.
    In his outstanding biography of Winston Churchill, William Manchester chronicles Churchill’s extraordinary vision in understanding and speaking out against a previous rise in fascism. In one episode, he has a private dinner with King George right after the Munich agreement, which appeased Hitler but was against the British Constitution and greatly contributed to Hitler’s rise. Standing by the fireplace, glaring at the floor, Churchill says to George “in this country when the king is in conflict with our Constitution, we get a new king”. Talk about speaking truth to power. But alas we have no Churchill today.
    In the book Manchester also quotes Lewis Carroll:
    When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’ ‘The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’
    ‘The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master — that’s all.’

    P.S. I’ve used the term fascism and that may put people off. But recall what fascism is: “an authoritarian system based on an alliance between business, government, & the military”. Notice there was no mention of “people” in that definition. I think it fits this new crowd perfectly.

      1. OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL

        For the record, I voted for McGovern, Carter, Carter, Dukakis, Clinton, Clinton, Gore, Kerry, Obomba, and Andrew Jackson (write-in).

    1. Thank you for the definition of fascism – I’d always wondered exactly what it was. It seems to be fairly rampant at the moment then, but without using the actual ‘f’ word… shouldn’t we be doing something about it?

  9. Golem a superb piece. Thank you.

    I do tend from time to time head to the dark side of the world stage. Basically I do not trust governments to listen to their people much anymore. This is all about resources and isolating Russia’s influence in the region. Your analysis is well thought out and makes sense.

    There is a reason the USA has a military with the latest and greatest toys. To protect our reserve status. What a lot of people like to gloss over and it is not discussed in media if the day the USA meddled with the SWIFT system and then told the world not to buy Iran’s oil.

    I look at this one event as the day the dollar died as the legal reserve currency.

    You are correct that the tribes in this reason have fought each other for over a thousand years. I did not think about the simple solution of letting them kill each other off. Brilliant.

    1. For sure US Global influence has died, but the US$ as legal reserve currency has been on life support.

      Here is an excerpt from an informative piece entitled U.S. Weakness and the Struggle for Hegemony from just over 10-years ago:

      … I don’t think we should underestimate the fact that in April of 2003 Lawrence Eagleberger, the secretary of state under the first President Bush, and still a close adviser of the current president’s father, said in print that if the United States were now to invade Syria, he, Eagleberger, would be for impeaching George W. Bush. Now, that is not a very light thing for a person of that sort to say…

      http://monthlyreview.org/2003/07/01/u-s-weakness-and-the-struggle-for-hegemony

    2. Ole Guy.

      Would you be willing to tell us more about the significance of the changes made to the Swift system and indeed wnat they were? Don’t worry if you haven’t the time but I think people would be intertested.

      1. Golem I will try and post it in a week or two max. Currently I am working on a friends home repairing walls, re-painting and installing all new doors in her home. Volunteered by the wife! LOL Actually she is an old friend. No man to do it so I volunteered. She has not undated the home in 38 years.

  10. Nice piece as usual David, thank you for a very thoughtful series.

    But I can’t keep myself today from remembering a different -although not completely unrelated- subject. Exactly forty years ago, in Santiago, Chile, the armed forces where attacking the government’s house (La Moneda) to overthrow Allende’s government and initiate 17 years of atrocities by Pinochet’s dictatorship.

    The US “School of the Americas” was very effective to disseminate torturing techniques among American armed forces of the center and south of America (n.b. I use America(n) in the continental broad sense rather than in the imprecise US-America(n) sense). The systematic violations of human rights, including the systematic detention, torturing and elimination -literally, bodies included- of thousands of people was a horrible consequence of Chile’s coup d’etat.

    Another consequence was the imposition of extreme neoliberal economic reforms. In fact, Friedman’s henchmen at Chicago had for long been indoctrinating Chile’s Catholic University economists on their ideology. It seems that Pinochet was finally convinced with Friedman’s visit to Chile… I think readers here know well about this, this was the first neoliberal experiment, precursors of Thatcher (Pinochet’s dear friend) and Reagan reforms you know better about… The international propaganda machine took care of disseminating so-called “Chile’s free market miracle” despite the tremendous social catastrophe that these reforms created; the ground for Washington “consensus” was thus irrigated.

    I read ‘Chile’s free market miracle: a second look’ by J. Collins and J. Lear, a book which explores in detail Pinochet’s economic experiment and it’s social consequences. I was born on ’81 so I was very little at the time; in many passages it was amazing how the book helped me understand and put in context a lot of my childhood memories. A brief description of Chile’s experiment can be found on
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jameshenry/2011/09/10/the-other-september-11/

    I remember some time ago (I think around december last year, on a post about Argentina vs US) someone here on the blog was kind of legitimizing Chile’s dictatorship and praising its consequences. The person commented on how, when he had been to Chile, common people where condemning the human rights violations but approving the economy. I wanted to reply to that but didn’t have the time and clarity to articulate my response at the time. It’s such a large topic that is difficult to condense in a comment, but I would at least like to point out that it finally seems that people in Chile have started to realize how much they have been abused for so long. How far it will go I don’t know, but I at least hope that we can get rid of the fraudulent Constitution left by Pinochet.

  11. #
    It’s worth noting that Russia gets not only political power but also massive income from this arrangement. In 2011 Gas exports generated at least half of all Russian government revenue and half of that came from exports to Europe. Thus a full quarter of all Russia’s government income comes from being Europe’s gas supplier.
    #

    typical i#iotic post from someone who dont have a clue about russia.. all those figures are false…

    #1 russian consolidated budget (federal/local) is about 24 trln rubles (12 month running sum), official rate rub/$ is 33:1, so its about 700+ bln in $$

    http://www.roskazna.ru/en/

    #2 gazprom
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazprom
    http://www.gazpromquestions.ru/?id=31#c269

    total revenues are $140 bln,, net income $40 bln. last year gazprom paid about 1.9 trln rubles, or ~60 bln $ bln taxes, but actually most of taxes are ‘DIRECT EXPORT TAX’ being paid by european customer…

    so anyway , overall gazprom taxes are less 10% of russian buget revenues, hardly ‘half of all Russian government revenue’

    you i#iot, got it wrong by factor 5 at least…

    bye

    1. Hello Alx West from Rostov on Don,

      I may have the figures wrong. In which case so does the US Congress which is where
      those figures come from. I cite the document in the article.

      Or could it be we are talking of different things. The consolidated budget you mention is quite a different thing from income. The US for example hasless in income than it has spends – hence its vast debt.

      As for who pays, this has no bearing does it. It is all income no matter who from.

      Anyway could you try to be a little more constructive and less of the ‘you I&diot”.

    1. Hello INCUBUS,

      I think there is no doubt that the GIA was heavily used/supported, possibly even created by some part of the state. Which is what I would fear most in Syria.

      1. ‘created by some part of the state’- in the case of Syria though, the question is which state/s?

        Btw thanks for the quality analysis Golem, the sort of information that is kept from us mere peasants by the mainstream. Nice one, keep it up!

    2. Just watched Nafeez Ahmed’s “Crisis of civilization” film yesterday. It provides a broad interweaving of energy, environment, economics and war mongering:

      http://crisisofcivilization.com/watch/

      Richard Heinberg of the Post Carbon Institute said of the film, “a really fantastic overview of the global situation. I don’t think I’ve seen a more comprehensive ‘welcome to the 21st century’.”

      Indeed. Welcome to the 21st Century, folks.

  12. ” Gentlemen, if we don’t hang together we shall hang separately.”
    Putting aside Unrighteous Mammon for a moment [ Qatar”s wish for gas lines , Saudi Arabia’s schemes, France’s machinations and Assad’s pipeline with Iran ]
    ” for the love of money is the root of all evil ” it is also worth bearing in mind that if Syria is squeezed into a howling woe due to the savagery of ethnic factions plus depleted uranium plus nuclear fall out , [ Damascus in Isaiah seventeen ], not only is a savoury and ancient people sacrificed but the International bankers with their military industrial will set a trap for their next genocide in Iran. Yes, it will insure new black gold flows , another central bank, but it will also guarantee them a new empire in the Middle East; overt not covert , a new world order there. For us here and everywhere it is also being planned : Order out of chaos.
    ” All war is deception all falsehood is a mask ” but it will take the neighbourhood with it.
    We the inhabitants of our present Rome are witnessing our sunset of decadence as we stumble under Their heavy weight of economic pulverisation. There is no market for USA and Euro bonds at the volumes the sellers require.[Hugo Salinas].
    All accounts will be forfeited [ Bank of England]. Fluctuations of price will not be in the metals but in the currencies because the whoredom of J.P.Morgan and associates is collapsing them. Our pounds are worth much less to buy with and our dollars will be destroyed . Our future is already here sliding on mountains of debt. What to do ? Why Their dying Rome can only maintain its position of disparity for the very few by the use of maximum force. Terrorism , mass murder, war. Thus” The monkey with the hand grenade” Russian tirade. Advantage Putin.
    What is left ? Illuminati global business in a militarised police state for all of us without International Law because of their “We don’t need no stinking law ” . Our innate freedoms are vanishing by the hour.
    ” …..we have a good military, we can take down governments,seven countries in five years….” this was simply a schema of time. In fact their hubris has taken longer but there is a neo-conservative guide book written by narcissistic and deranged psychopaths whose demands are war on all peoples. Forever . ” Creative destruction ” as one of these fifth columnists so aptly put it. This philosophy is ancient , has pedigree, is depraved and is again dropping on our heads.
    Since before Their end of the Cold war which lasted forty three years, cost trillions and accomplished nothing except the super build up of the USSR , America lost every war They led it into . Also after. These include the wars against ,poverty,
    cancer, the mini ice age,drugs,injustice,economic corruption,for human rights,
    fascism,toxic mega projects,surveillance and the list goes on and on.
    America’s potential greatness ….gone. A house divided cannot stand. Hegel laughs in his grave. Talk about a super state corrupted to serve the Illuminati and perish in the process. For sure 9\11 was Their warm up. ” All floods start but with a single drop of rain.”
    One has to wonder why America’s floating leviathans are purposely and absurdly exposed in a crowded bath tub to the advantage of the cross hairs of its ” friends”.
    While puppet Obama tinkers puppet Putin plays his chess. Advantage Putin.
    But “Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes ? [who will guard the guards themselves?]
    The victim of the con game is always the last to know. Underneath your superb analysis this is a war for our souls. If we have them.

  13. If it is about gas and reliance on fossil fuels, its about time these guys pushed for self sufficiency in energy if only to promote national security and avoid such heavy reliance on other countries.

  14. Hi golem, excellent article(s) as usual.

    May I add a joker card.

    You seem to have overlooked the Gas finds in the “Levantine basin”. These, from the one off Gaza to the others between Cyprus, Lebanon and Israel are an unknown quantity. There have even been two or three new finds, always edging northwards.

    In themselves they should not change the Syrian war scene, UNLESS there are more finds in Syrian territorial waters. (I believe there could be some)
    One interesting aside is that exploration and exploitation “rights” have been granted to, – wait for it – Murdoch and the Rothschilds (their company presumably) in the SYRIAN Golan Heights. That Israel grants rights in occupied territories is one thing, that the Golan heights could also contain gas or Oil is another (The information came from Haaretz if my memory serves me right).

    It does not add anything to peace.

    The Lebanese waters also become part of the Gas equation. (as territory to be extracted from the ownership of the inhabitants)

    Keep up the good work,
    shaun

    1. Hello Shaun s,

      Good to hear from you again. The Golan Heights one is, as you say a joker. I didn’t and don’t really know what to make of it, because Israel and Syria have always had their ‘secret’ agreement about the Golan. Whole thing seems very odd to me.

      As for the Cyprus/Lebanon gas I think you’re right it will become important. In what way exactly I don’t know.

      Anyone with any further thoughts on this?

  15. Maybe we should remember that this is (partially at least) the second Proxy war between US/Israel expansionism and Russia. It has a “Gas-Oil side to it as well –

    Georgia. Saakatchvili organised an (almost certainly) false flag attack on Russian sympathising areas, and was surprised by the vigour and efficiency of the Russian reply.
    Without going into details, the result was to have been an “airbase” for a future attack on Iran ,and to put Oil and Gas routes from the Caspian basin, under “Western” control. As well as to continue the encirclement of Russia (Missile systems and radar were being set up in Europe, which have now changed the strategic balance), and to challenge Russian control over the Black Sea.

    The Russians may have won the war but they didn’t do too well with manipulated public opinion. This time they seem to have learnt their lessons well.

    In reply to Ambrosius about Isiah 17. It is worth reading to the end, from verse 12 it appears that the the worlds nations decide (the masses) to get rid of those that “plant flowers with hedges around them” (ie. the super-rich) and it happens overnight. “Thats the sort of those that steal from us”. Just saying.

  16. This international intrigue stuff kind of shafts any notion that we have any of the free trade and level playing fields of espoused theory.

    There is still a prevalent attitude that “we” somehow benefit from these wars and holding swathes of humanity in poverty at the mercy of resource and financial curses. We went to the Falklands to keep oil rights and so on. Somewhere, “we” still believe we must play the dirty game or the sky will fall and someone else will take it over. Our politicians rise on promises of peace and democracy, but all become establishment players once the shadows whisper intelligence in their ears. We can never know this intelligence as it is “our” competitive advantage and would cease to be so if revealed.

    The Catch 22 is that if anyone knows Cui Bono it is people in the listening posts and analysis rooms of intelligence – the very people who won’t be telling us anything.

    We can agree and no doubt extend David’s analysis. In recent years I have wondered more on who the enemy at home is and find it difficult to believe we are not in the hands of some kind of mafia. Quite what we are playing at on the international stage and why is less important to me than the structure of the kleptocracy and the ease with which it subsumes our politicians – indeed what our politics can be. One could think of setting up ethical business to trade in ‘turmoil’ countries – but how could such hope to succeed against those in league with the turmoil makers, bribers and looters?

    According to UNHDR, South Korea has faired much better than all the Arab nations and Africa. Any beneficiaries tend not to be the indigenous people other than elites “we” create. What lies in our own silence concerning what “we” receive?

    1. About who “intelligence agencies” are working for.

      The latest “Snowdon” leak mentions that NSA collected data (which, I presume also concerns data collected by the UK – for the Med + south, and Sweden – for the north) has been supplied to Israel. This meta data, unverified and unfiltered has been given to a third party who does NOT have any “rights” of citizens (other than it’s own?) to consider.

      This information has been treated to the triple-monkey treatment by the worlds press (see no evil, hear no evil, and don’t say anything). Possibly because of official “gag” orders.

      Having data on Politicians, including those from the US and UK, plus corporate information, it woud be a simple matter to blackmail, or target specific individuals.

      I too have wondered at the sudden “turn-arounds” in policies by many Politicians, and this could be a partial reason. (Another is that they have targeted the “teleprompters” that control…. errr…consol….errr….advise Politicians etc. a loudspeaker behind the left ear, leads to the person not being able to separate their own thoughts from the voice behind.)

      The supplementary question, whether it is the the NSA or Israel that is in command of the wests “intelligence” services- is an open one.

  17. David –

    I made several attempts to leave a comment in your newest post concerning the interview podcast. I am not sure if any attempts made it through … please delete duplicates if applicable …

    Cheers

    1. I’ll take a look and let you know. Please accept my apologies if the system is being annoying….

      They all went to spam. God alone knows why. None of your other comments on any other thtread were spammed. Why did it take against you on that one thread?!

      I can’t understand the vaguaries of computers. Illogical and temperamental creations!

      Anyway, fixed now.

  18. As chaos and stalemate seem to be the result, perhaps that is indeed the aim.

    It would explain what otherwise seem to be appalling foreign policy moves on the part of the US which appear to make little sense.

    The aim of exploiting the energy resources whilst keeping the region in a state of ‘controlled’ chaos may not be far off the mark.

  19. Interesting read and as always Golem your are a bit more conspiratorial and strategic than myself but I always value your opinion.

    My take is, the middle east is out of anyone’s control. Libya is the latest example. The crazies killed the US Ambassador and brought the energy production to a halt. In that you may see some nefarious plot I see only chaos.

    Look forward to the Keystone pipeline approval in the US and approval of exports of LNG to Europe. Some of you over there want to freeze in the dark in an attempt to save the earth for the others accustom to heat and light there is LNG from friendly profit driven hands.

    1. Chaos is the goal- ‘divide et imperium’- Fragmentation, Balkanisation, perhaps even to the point of the end of the Israeli State (see Kissinger recently) having outlived its usefulness as an expensive strategic investment. Look at Somalia, Iraq, Libya and now Syria, with Egypt and Yemen not far behind, Iran ‘s 49%+ inflation rate. It’s no wonder Russia is digging its heels in, but the US is working to a long plan- grab what diminishing energy resources they can, stabilise the petrodollar, maintain the Dollar’s status as GRC, prop up their ailing economy with a filip to the Military Industrial Complex, boost their high-tech industries,flex their military muscle at China- and eventually soak up the unemployed through a new Draft, along with all the confetti that’s been printed and usher in a new era of automated surveillance and robotics…

      1. Incubus.. I’m with you on the surveillance state it’s already here however as someone who has served in the US Army during the Viet Nam war I can tell you that draftees can be a detriment to the mission. Are you familiar with the term “fraging”

        1. Well yes, indeed I am familiar with the term, and with all due respect sir, that didn’t stop the draft when things started to get really ‘Dinky Dau’ in Nam did it, nor the political organisations that developed among the troops? Likewise the mutinies in the First World War never stopped the machine from rolling on.
          I think the surveillance state we have now is as nothing to what is coming- look up ‘Intellistreets’, the ‘internet of things’, the potential for 365 day drone surveillance coverage and wearable IT, and you and me both probably thought it couldn’t get any worse…tbh, all our politicians and the global super-rich need to be fragged.

    1. “We congratulate our members on their determination to resist this draconian attack on civil liberties. We instruct our members to take industrial action short of strikes from 00:01 on Thursday 19 September 2013 until further notice, by booking on and off duty using the established method and not using the biometric machines.”

      http://www.rmtlondoncalling.org.uk/node/4461

  20. “Catherine Austin Fitts was interviewed on The Power Hour on August 29, 2013. She asserted that we are in transition between the Old Economy and the New Economy, which are parallel worlds so to speak. The New Economy will seize the assets of the Old Economy while casting off all its liabilities. Examples of this are cities that are declaring bankruptcy where billions of dollars in the pensions of the retired public employees are being eliminated, freeing the Elite to take over the unburdened assets of the municipalities by starting anew.

    Fitts believes this is a planned agenda by the Elite that has been in effect since 2001. The Elite in any major financial crisis will come out on top and not suffer serious consequences such as what happened in the meltdown of the economy in 2008, which was a goal of the Elite’s agenda.

    It would appear from her argument that the primary goal of the Elite is to bring about The Great Default, probably sooner than later. This way they can engineer the elimination of all liabilities from the Old Economy, such as social security, and begin anew with the New Economy that will be under their total control and to their exclusive benefit.

    So The Great Default in inevitable if for no other reason than the Elite see it as a way to achieve their agenda.”

    http://educationforum.ipbhost.com/index.php?s=aa8d242dc7bb733c4e72e04f24d32874&showtopic=20431&hl=

  21. Golem

    If memory serves, the US shifted significant military assets and command and control facilities from Saudi Arabia to Qatar some years ago already. This was a shift that began after the first Gulf war.

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