A brief update on the state of the blog now that the quiet summer in the eye of the storm is over.
The blog has grown by a factor of 10 in the last 6 weeks. It was growing before but has accelerated. Between 12 and 18 thousand visits in a week. Looking at between 17 and 25 thousand pages. You do all this reading from 104 different countries. 47 of those are represented nearly every day. I look at the reader in Kyrgyzstan and wonder.
There is hardly a nation in Europe from Ireland to Albania, from Finland to Turkey who is not now a regular part of our community.
Just taking today – you are people from 37 universities in 12 countries who logged on. But the best part for me is how many of you post comments, ask questions and answer them. It gives me a tremendous feeling. THANK YOU.
Today – just today – this place we have built together attracted the attention of 36 banks from the Fed and the ECB to Gazprom Bank, Cantor Fitzgerald, all the other Primary Dealer banks, and most of the BIG banks in most of the crisis countries, across Europe, the US and Japan all visit on a regular basis.
I have no idea who in the banks read us today. I have always assumed it was the pr office keeping up to date on who is forming what opinion. And if that is true then your voice and mine is carrying to offices high above our heads. But I start to think that maybe, just maybe some of them are reading because they want to.
Thank you all.
It should be compulsory reading for all politicians. Keep up the good work.
I was pleased to see you linked over at Zerohedge today.
Hi, one of your Australian universities here (though am a Brit).
I recommended one if your posts to Yves Smith at Nakedcapitalism recently.
I don't think she'd posted links to your blog previously (though I might have missed them). Anyway there is a link in most recent links post at NC so I'll bet that gets you extra interest 🙂
Keep up the good work.
Terry
"attracted the attention of 36 banks from the Fed and the ECB to Gazprom Bank, Cantor Fitzgerald, all the other Primary Dealer banks, and most of the BIG banks in most of the crisis countries, across Europe, the US and Japan all visit on a regular basis."
Wouldn't it be ironic if the cold truths told on this blog began to feed back into the markets' fears though?
But seriously, congrats and keep up the awesome work. This should be daily reading for everyone.
Any viewers from the european parliament in Strasbourg? I don't know who else is better placed to voice the interests of the european people as they're being robbed blind by Brussels and bondholders. I tried once to call the Green's Eva Joly's attention to your blog, but to her shame, it seems she did not care or understand… On a personal note: Thanks…All the best to you and your family too…
Hello All,
Thank you for your very kind comments.
So that was you was it Terry? I wondered how that happened. Thank you. I would love to have aword with Yves just to say thanks. I'll drop an emailo.
Lars, It's always good to hear from you. Family is out throwing snow balls. Hope you and yours continue to prosper.
Laim and Peter. You keep reading and commenting I'll keep writing.
RUNNING ON EMPTY…
Golem is right that the immediate emergency is the coercion of the taxpayer to cover the losses of the shadow banking system.
But the root cause of the problem is bigger. It is that economic growth is related to our energy supply.
In essence our economies are machines that burn fossil fuel to generate GDP.
That is to say, you burn about 9 MJ of fuel and you generate about 1 new USD of GDP.
The great thing is that your shiny new 1 USD will buy you about 45 MJ of fuel . . . can you see a cunning feedback loop here? But this will only work while fuel is cheap and easy to get.
The reason this is relevant to our discussion here is that a debt-based economy is only possible in the expectation of future economic growth: I will only lend you 100 dollars if I believe you will be richer in the future than you are at present; I need you to be able to repay me with interest.
So in a world of increasing GDP, we are burning more and more fuel per capita each year. And debt-based financing, magnified by insane leverage of the shadow banking system, totally relies on us burning EVEN MORE every year in the future (otherwise the debts cannot be paid back).
Indeed, some say that growth of the whole shadow banking system was a natural reaction to the fact that we were growing as fast as we could from current consumption of resources – the only place left to exploit in search of profit was the _future_, through recursive paper-backed debt.
However, that doesn't really matter. The problem is that we do not have more fuel per capita in the future. World oil production has peaked, and population is still rising. As a result:
1) We are all going to have less and less stuff each year from now on. People will deny it; the truth is hard to accept when it goes against everything you have been told since birth.
2) Economic growth (real growth from real things, not phantom growth through virtual paper-shuffling) is over.
And this leaves us with a huge headache about the current banking problems. Yes, the financial system inadvertently and/or fraudulently ran up vast debts both imaginary and real; and mixed them in with our real economy to such an extent that everything is rotten – but if we could only have 5% economic growth for a few decades then we could possibly sort it all out somehow.
However, we will not have economic growth again. What if we are looking at 6% (the decline rate for Saudi oil production) contraction each year, forever? How then can these debts be repaid?
Simply, they can't. And this is yet another reason we should not throw away our hard earned tax-funded schools, hospitals and amazing public infrastructure, simply to cover the losses of the banks.
Yes, it will be absolutely hideous if we let the banks fail. But that is inevitable now. It will be far worse if we sign away everything we own, and the banks fail anyways.
Golem X1V,
Just wanted to say thanks for all the hard work.
Picked up your blog while reading CIF comments on the Guardian web-site. Just wanted to let you know I forwarded your blog regarding AIB bondholders to two of my local TD's (Seymour Crawford and Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin)on Thursday.
For any Irish voters reading this, FG said they can't burn the bondholders for legal reasons(if anyone has info on this I'd love to hear about it) whereas Sinn Fein and the TUC are arguing we burn them.
Keep up the good work- you have a new convert
Impressive stats indeed, from an early adopter. I wonder whether the figures take account of people like me that use an email-based RSS reader?
Hello! How are you oldgustav?
I am so glad you are still with us. As you say you were one of the first. To answer your question I don't think they do take rss emial feeds into account. Which is why i didn't know you were still with us.
Glad you are though.
Great comment Ben and a timely reminder.
It's easy to get caught up in all the detail of financial chicanery and forget why it's so important in the first place. I know from previous threads that many visitors to this blog share your concerns – they've certainly been troubling me for a while.
I remember learning about the finite nature of fossil fuels and the looming energy crisis in pre-GCSE science class. That we can't keep extracting and burning forever is not new information, is it? And yet on we march under the leadership of people who know that it's coming but refuse to do anything about it.
I think there are clear parallels between our current situation and the lead up to the First World War. Decades of build up, everyone knowing that it will happen at some point but not how or when exactly. Of course the two crises, mass armed conflict and ecological catastrophe are very different but both are the products of competing large economies continuing down a path of 'growth' despite the all too clear consequences. If you substitute the arms manufacturers of the pre-war years for the BPs and Exxon Mobils of today the analogy is complete.
Our leaders have again become locked into a pattern of behaviour that sees them pursuing short term interests (then markets, now energy) in order to keep or gain an advantage over competitors. This modus operandi has become hard-wired over the preceding 40 years.
The runaway train has no way to turn and too much inertia to stop.
It terrifies me.
Oh, and congratulations Golem on the continued growth of the blog.
Knowledge is our greatest weapon and you Sir, are an excellent armourer.
Hi Golem
I've been fascinated by the slow creep of the Followers count this year. I've visited some blogs where they have more than 1000 followers for some very odd topics: I never realised so many people were interested in glove puppets or the perfect cup of tea, for example. However, despite the large number of followers the commentators are rather few, and their comments terse.
One of the main attractions of your blog is the frequent contributions by the posters and the occasional clash of conflicting passions. What a mixed bunch we are: journalists, financial experts, government employees, steel workers, engineers, teachers, anarchists, lurkers …
Congratulations on keeping the blog lively and informative. I will continue to spread the word on other websites using my small collection of nicknames.
Wonderful wonderful stuff! See you on Tuesday!
Hi Ben Gabel
There's a common theme here, whether the topic be energy consumption or Credit Default Swaps. We all need to live within our means.
There will always be super rich people, and there is nothing wrong with that provided that they treat other people fairly. Great leaders should be rewarded through the respect that they have earned from their followers.
Parasites should be re-educated, whether it be by banishment, emotional stress or flea powder.
ben
great comment, i been worried for some time about the end of free energy(petrol at £1 a litre is still basically free if compared to horses)it seems obvious to me that real income in the "advanced" countries will go in to reverse, of course for the bottom third that has been the case for the last 35 years, but now these declines in income will be extended all the way up to 95% of population.
golem
great blog, easy to recommend
Golem
Keep it up.
Hope the link to Newsnet Scotland helps your stats.
http://www.newsnetscotland.com
I am sure more of your articles will be republished there and help your public recognition.
Bugger (the Panda)
David,
To add to the deserved chorus, a very well done to you. (And I hope my F5 key habit doesn't skew your stats too much!)
And a personal thank you.
I remember for years trying to argue about how we have zero political choice, how our system is a veneer, a stitch up between the real corporate rulers, their parliamentary mouthpieces (of any shade) and their PR press. And that all we have to do is lend them legitimacy and a mandate (sold to us as a choice) every 4 – 5 years! Blank faces.
Now I know it wasn't a hugely well constructed argument, but it was what I could see and sense around me. And it was a lonely position to take. People are quite agreeable with the 'all politicians are liars / only in it for themselves' line, but progressing that feeling into something more accurate is the difficult thing. Especially when the x-factor is on.
Flash forward 10 years and well, the world is a different place.
I remember seeing you on CIF and gradually, looking for your comments was more important than the article. I followed you here early on, but don’t comment much (I’ll leave the discourse to those better placed to do it justice than I, as evinced by my nice naïve argument above!).
You’ve provided an education though (as have your informed followers) and filled in the gaps. I do discuss these issues every opportunity I get, occasionally I have the opportunity to do so with city ‘high fliers’ and you are as Jamie says, an excellent armourer.
The biggest benefit though, is to ‘meet’ you all. A heartfelt thank you David to you and everyone else here.
Ianu.
Great blog, I'm learning a lot, it's good to be angry and armed with the facts
Here is an extract of the Irish Senate squabbling over whether bondholder names should be mentioned in relation to renewable energy projects:
click here
Search on 'Senator Quinn has given me my lead in' to find the relevant section.
I thought this was particularly appropriate to several of the recent topics and further underscores the conflict between elected officials and the financial class.
Hello,
Just writing to say I am one of your most recent followers. I have gained more truth and understanding from your blog than most of the other media surrounding the crisis. I'm writing to share my thanks and appreciation, please keep writing, and I will continue to read and share your ever refreshing facts and views with those around me,
Great-fully yours,
Brian
Hi Golem
Good to see so many new customers, and longtime lurkers, commenting !
The book has finally arrived to my Ma in the Far North of NZ , so OZ and other parts should have it too…
Pointed and witty videos here — World Collapse Explained in 3 Minutes
How does the financial system work
Economic Collapse: Bank Runs, China, Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente, Max Keiser
ETC !
No need to encourage you to keep up the good work . . . frog2 at the Gdn.
I second the above ^^^ comments. Nice vibe.
Nice colour too.
joined this site in the early days,always read it every day neva normally coment guna start doing so tho,fantastic golem keep it up
Mish has a good post on Ireland.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/in-rare-agreement-with-krugman-onerous.html
Well this is rather spendid is it not. A sort of readers "No, I am Spartacus" moment.
Welcome to the new arrivals and glad to hear from you old timers. I think we are going to make a formidable team!
Can I just ask your collective opinion please?
We now have a very great many readers who come from non-english speaking countries. Now, many of you may be ex-pats, but some, I am sure, are natives and perhaps english is not your first language. In your place on a French board I would be terrified to try to express myself in French. I speak it but my writing is very poor.
BUT I, for one, would love to hear your thoughts and day to day observations. I am sure your perspectives would enrich our discussion. I would be surprised if I was the only one who felt this. And as you know I feel strongly that there are those who would love us to divide along national lines. I feel we must not.
So what can we all do? Can we collectively invite those who may want to post but feel, as I would, shy of trying to write in a foreign language, to please post knowing we will all welcome hearing from you even if your written English is scrappy? Or can we even say you could post in your native language leaving the rest of us to try google translation?
Or am I being silly? Would such posting lead to factions and estrangement?
I would like to hear your thoughts and any ideas you have on this.
Hi David. Pleasure – but don't think I was clear in my posting. The article I recommended to Yves was this one from last month. I'm not sure if someone else recommended the recent one she put in her links.
cheers,
Terry
golem
i'm an exile
but it is good to see things from another prepective, posting in native lingo i think is best
i was going to ask you a very selfish question
am i safe in norway or is no one safe, of course when (if) the meltdown comes it will hurt everyone(almost) but i'm kinda hoping that norway escapes the worst of it
Richard,
Norway has oil and timber. It will be better off than many. But it has also being buying up specualtive bonds which if it is still holding when the burst comes will get cremated.
No one will escape unhurt. But Norway will be less hurt than those with whom it trades.
I'm a long time reader and very occasional poster. Just to reiterate what others have said- great blog, many thanks Golem.
Ian.
I think that's a very good idea – I would love to get an idea from international readers as to how the crisis is playing out in the media in their respective countries and what the attitude among the public is.
Especially Germany and France.
Maybe there's another GolemXIV out there blogging in Hungarian…
This lurkers "I Am Sparticus":
I am an IT contractor for one of the Big Four in the U.S. who has been doing everything possible over the last year to secure a full time position with said institution. After hearing your voice (among others including Yves Smith, William K. Black, etc.) I am seriously reconsidering that decision. It's so difficult to balance job security and looking out for myself and my family with my conscience which tells me that this is NOT An institution that I want to be associated with.
I also purchased my first home in 2006, at the height of the bubble, with a "responsible" 30-year fixed loan, though it was 100% financed. The house has since lost over 30% of it's value ($60,000) and it is simply not large enough to raise a family in. As a result, and I thank you and others for helping me see the big picture, I stopped paying my mortgage several months ago and am waiting out the foreclosure process. I have never used credit cards and, in fact, the only credit I've used in my life was to secure the loan for my home! Good riddance I say… We will stay here as long as we can, until we are forced to leave, at which point we will rent a bigger place for less money. Maybe eventually we will save up enough to purchase a home in cash, but I will never again borrow money.
This is a tumultuous and frightening time. On the plus side, we don't need much to be happy, and we have very little to our names that we fear to lose. As long as we have each other, a warm place to live, and food to eat, maybe a deck of cards and a cribbage board, we will find a way to be happy. I have a strong IT skill set that employers seem to value, so my hope is that no matter what happens, barring a complete collapse of technology and infrastructure, I will remain employable and will be able to provide for my family.
Working for one of the big four and being right in the heart of the real estate crisis makes everything you write incredibly relevant to my life. Your words are like an oasis in a desert of misinformation, crony-ism, and those taking advantage of the very real fear and anger that anyone who is paying attention to feels.
The things that set you apart are your articulateness, your humility, your passion, your COMPASSION, as well as the wonderful audience that you have garnered that come together to discuss and debate, and with whom you actively engage.
All that is to say – thank you. Your words are heard and they make a difference. I am so happy to hear that your readership has increased, as it is absolutely deserved. I hope that others out there like me will post and tell you their stories, as we are all alone out here and trying to do the best we can for our families in a scary world that seems so stacked against us.
For any Irish voters reading this, FG said they can't burn the bondholders for legal reasons(if anyone has info on this I'd love to hear about it) whereas Sinn Fein and the TUC are arguing we burn them.
I'm curious as to what legal reasons exist regarding burning the bondholders. I am operating under the assumption that when the crash hit, the Irish govt said "we'll guarantee everyone's (bondholders') money."
I can't imagine this took the form of a written contract. Therefore I'd be suspicious of those claiming "legal reasons." Seems perfectly legitimate to me if the govt decided "you know what, we've decided we're not going to cover your debts. Sorry."
Though perhaps they're referring to the agreement with the ECB & IMF, in which case they'd just have to default & tell those bodies to eff themselves, if they wanted to burn anyone.
I'm guessing the 3 (?) major political parties in Ireland are all banding together so that voters don't have a choice between a party that wants to pay & a party that promises not to pay.
Hola, me plazco oír sus pensamientos en los banqueros del vampiro en su lengua y traducirlos. Un mundo. Un amor.
Γεια, είμαι ευτυχής να ακούσω τις σκέψεις σας στους τραπεζίτες βαμπίρ στη γλώσσα σας και να τις μεταφράσω. Ένας κόσμος. Μια αγάπη.
Hallo, bin ich glücklich, Ihre Gedanken auf den Vampirbankern in Ihrer Sprache zu hören und sie zu übersetzen. Eine Welt. Eine Liebe.
Bonjour, je suis heureux d'entendre vos pensées sur les banquiers de vampire dans votre langue et de les traduire. Un monde. Un amour.
Ciao, sono felice di sentire i vostri pensieri sui banchieri del vampiro nella vostra lingua e di tradurrli. Un mondo. Un amore.
Dia duit, Tá áthas orm a chloisteáil do smaointe maidir le baincéirí na vampire i do theanga agus iad a aistriú. Amháin domhan. Amháin grá.
hi hpy2ear ur
thtz n vmpire
bnkrs n ur
lngage n
trnsl8
1 wrld 1 lv
Wow! 24K,
Are you now or have you ever been in the past a polyglot? Do you now or have you ever in the past knowlingly associated with polyglots?
DopeAddcit,
As far as I know, there are no legal reasons. Any there may be in Ireland's case would NOT be due to the nature of a standard bond contract but due to some made-on-purpose extra agreement Ireland's politicians intentionally agreed with the bond holders specifically to make sure the Irish people could not protect themselves.
Paul Mason thinks that the effect of the government's guarantee has given equal standing to holders of Senior Unsecured debt as to deposit holders.
So the holders of Senior unsecured debt could mount a legal challenge to block the restructuring or ensure that deposit holders lose out too which is politically unfeasible.
Through which court's jurisdiction this would happen is a mystery and the Zerohedge guys think the legal narrative will be the new form of misdirection to deflect public anger away from the likes of Goldman et al.
As you keep saying Golem, the sovereignity of a nation resides in it's people, not it's Government or in Brussels or in a court. If the people of Ireland can raise their voices over the din of obfuscatory yammering from the financial-political classes then they're perfectly entitled to tell the bond holders to feck off.
Hi G, Mein Vater ist ein polygot. J'emploie le babelfish de yahoo!
It's not that hard is it. And it's a good way to keep the hockey stick going. I think it's funny that your bubble can only burst after we stop their silly games.
Hans,
I am so sorry your very first post got bumped into spam. It sometimes seem to happen with first posts and I don't know how to stop it.
THANK YOU for your very kind comment. PLEASE consider posting again.
I am sure I speak for everyone here when I saty we would value your thoughts and stories from where you live. I should have checked earlier and if I had I woud have found your post sooner. I was away and got back to find leaks in my roof. That's my excuse and I'm sticking to it. We do need tostick together and work out between us a new and honest assessment of our situation and our desires both individually and collectively . We can do it. i believe we have already started to do it here in these pages. I am glad you have joined us and can add your thoughts to ours.
Could someone please explain to me why a Sovereign Country (I am not including the EU countries because in my view they are not sovereign if they can't control their own money)cannot just print their own money instead of borrowing it? They can pay interest to themselves if they want to and they can pay themselves back if they want to. Someone said it would cause inflation but surely borrowing would too. After all both are money and designed to keep a country going.