The Headquarters of the ruling Egyptian National Democratic Party is on fire. There is no more powerful icon of popular disgust with Mubarak’s rule than this.
So far there has been no word from Mubarak. He has been deafening in his silence and invisibility. Is he still there? Will those countries in the West who have sustained him in power over his people, leave him in the country as a sacrifice or will they spirit him away?
And they may have to do one or the other soon because the government curfew has failed. In Cairo, Suez and Alexandria the army and its tanks are on the streets, while the protesters have set fire to cars and army vehicles.
The government has now brought the army in to try to do the job the riot police have been unable to do. But as I type an angry crowd of protesters have stopped and set fire to an army troop carrier. They are now trying to push another off the bridge in to the Nile.
All day the protesters have faced down the riot police despite their use of tear gas and stun grenades. The question is how far will the army escalate their response. Right now, for the moment at least, the answer appears to be all the way. The leaders of the Army will be watching and weighing their options.
In Cairo there are now sounds of both small arms fire and large explosions. And as the crowd closes in to the Ministry of Information they will come face to face with units of Egyptian Special forces. What those Special Forces do will determine what happens next and whether the hard liners are going to fight it out.
Make no mistake Egypt is the key to the whole region. It is the gateway between Arabia and North Africa. It has the crossings with Gaza and Israel. It has Al-Azhar University in Cairo which has been and still is one of if not the intellectual centres of radical Islamic thought. What role Wahhabism comes to have in this popular uprising will be key to the nest few weeks and Al-Azhar will be the key to that.
Egypt has been central to US foreign policy for decades as America’s model for it a modern secular, democratic, business and Western oriented Arab nation. That model was always a lie since Mubarak was a familiar western supported, President for Life in all but name. That model, America’s model is now on fire. Hilary Clinton has just been wheeled out to say the usual things about peaceful protest and the need for the government to play nicer with its people. The usual empty Washington blah, blah, blah. But just because the public statements are anodyne doesn’t mean that America’s intelligence and military aren’t worried. Egypt is America’s second most important ally in the Middle East after Israel. America gives Egypt about 1.5 billion dollars annually.
The question worrying Washington is whether Iran’s influence will seep into any vacuum.
None of the Western Intelligence agencies has good human intelligence on the ground in Egypt and certainly not in Al-Azhar. The Americans have by far the least clue and the fewest human resources. The Israeli’s have the most intelligence sources but they are at the moment not cooperating with their American colleagues they way they have done in the past. Which blinds the Americans even more than usual.
What everyone is listening out for is what the Shia are going to do. If Shia names start to come to the fore that will signal that the uprising has become part of something much wider.
The unrest has already spread from Algeria to Egypt but now to Syria as well. Today the Syrian government shut down Internet access. Israel is surrounded by Muslim unrest and regimes being rocked. Dont’ expect Mr Netanyahu to be a force for peace.
The riots in Egypt are intensifying as I write. The protesters are setting more police vehicles on fire and stoning the police who are shooting back.
Hovering uneasily in the background to all this is the questions which no one wants to talk about, will Israel, Iran and America let this remain a matter for Egypt and its people or will they make it a regional and strategic conflict.
So far no one has been burning flags in front of the camera’s and no one has reported the crowds chanting death to America or death to Israel. So far this uprising has been about chronic poverty, massive disparity between rich and poor and a President who has been trying to position his son to succeed him in another of Egypt’s ‘free and fair elections’.
So far this has been about ordinary Egyptions wanting a better life for their children and some substance to the charade of Democracy we in the West have been content to pay lip service to. My worry is that America, Israel and Iran won’t let it stay that way but will each contribute to making it another bloody battleground of their ideologies.
And lastly – watch out for what happens to the canal. Who will secure it and under what pretext.
Unrest in Egypt LIVE Blog.
The world starting to change!
The US will secure the canal. One way or another, but it must be secured. The oil goes through it.
US quality of life depends on a long thin line of tankers – a floating pipeline – from the middle east, through the med, and across the ocean.
If that is cut off, America is over. Socially, financially, materially.
Remember, our economic system is simply a machine for turning oil into dollars. No oil – no dollars.
The scale of the oil flow is hard to understand. Maybe this will help: Remember the hideous spill in the Gulf last year? When the Deepwater Horizon gushed millions of barrels of oil for months & months into the sea?
The entire contents of that huge oil field under the seafloor – if every last drop had been collected instead of spilt- would have run america for just 3 days.
3 days. Just picture all those millions of americans burning oil at that rate, for their cars and houses and industrialised farms and factories & planes and all the rest of it.
And imagine how angry they would be if it was suddenly cut off. Very angry. Very angry with their government.
So, the line of tankers is very important. The canal WILL be secured at any cost. In fact I bet the planes are in the air as we speak.
Excellent post as usual David, the game changer here is the internet, we can all learn the truth, and the ruling elite don't like it. See what happened today to try to stop the crowds from organising through mobile tech?
There is an awakening, and it's happening right before our eyes.
Wonder where this will lead?
A concept that is a little out of date , gone are the days when oil tankers came through the Suez Canal. The tankers are much too large ,these days the tankers are very large and fast and route themselves past the Cape of Good Hope ( As was ) now South Africa . The real question in my opinion is , will the Egyptian populace swap one dictator for another of whatever ilk or do they want democracy . If none of the above then they will probably settle for getting fed whoever is in power
@reneecharles – fair comment , but only partially so:
Oil leaving Straight of Hormuz southwards out of Gulf region – approx 15 million barrels/day
Red Sea northwards to med – approx 2-3million barrels/day (suez +sumed pipeline)
US oil consumption approx 20 million barrels /day
Of which approx 10 million /day are imports
So transit through egypt (2million barrels/day) could account for up to a fifth of USA daily oil imports (10 million barrels).
They might reasonably be a bit concerned.
Thank you Ben that puts a slightly different light on the matter. I am old enough to remember the last gasp of empire when UK/France and secretly Israel invaded to secure the Canal and Eisenhower used US financial power to debase Sterling and force a withdrawal. Would it not be ironic if US wanted to have the canal secured for economic purposes ? Sir Anthony EDEN will be turning in his grave . However it appears that we have that most dangerous thing in Egypt, People power! Who can harness it and turn it to their own political purpose?
What a great sight… all afternoon watching Al Jazeera Live.. been waiting for Egypt to blow for many years… situation there was worse and worse every year. If it doesn't slide into Islamism it might be like the outpouring of hopeful Pan Arab secularism that followed Nasser's take over. All dissipated of course and a world that is far less hopeful than it was but when the situation is intolerable…
People thought the Egyptians were somehow inured to corruption but I think this was to underestimate the huge security apparatus that was in place and how vicious it was to the least signs of dissent. This could be the Year of Revolutions for the Arab World like 1848 was for Europe. Or is this too hopeful? As for the Canal I dont see how it would benefit Egypt to interfere with free passage. its not like 1956 they own it now.
BG I think you will find most of the oil going through Suez is heading to Europe. South America, Nigeria/west Africa and Canada supply the bulk of Americas supply.
…and it seems from wikileaks the US is very well connected in the uprising, sorry to disappoint.
The bad news is that the Egyptian govt has cut off most internet access. A French ISP is offering free dial-up service to those who can call France via analog phone line. I'm not sure how that will impact protest organization, and whether the shut down effects things like text messaging.
While it certainly seems plausible that the US & friends would want to intervene to ensure a specific outcome, I am having a hard time imagining what form that interference would take.
I don't see direct military intervention. The US would have to be incredibly desperate to do something so ham-fisted. Maybe they'd go the opposite direction & import free food. Regardless, it's tremendously exciting. I just hope the casualties are kept low until Mubarak is strung up like Mussolini.
And imagine how angry they would be if it was suddenly cut off. Very angry. Very angry with their government.
Too bad they aren't angry now about how our govt has wasted the last 30 years when it could've been subsidizing investment in alternative energy sources.
When accounting for US oil consumption, Middle East oil comes fourth or fifth depending on how you count. One of the problems is that the greatest refining capacity in the US is geared towards light sweet crude. There has not been a refinery built in the past 35 years that can handle sour crude and what capacity there is, is being used to refine South American sour. Oil coming out of the Middle East today is almost exclusively sour crude. The light stuff has been depleted years ago. Only Iraq today provides any useful quantities of light sweet. The rest comes from Nigeria (bonny light).
I live in Jordan. Regional developments hold a particular interest for me…
Mubarak's belief that he can simply dismiss the government as a sop to the revolt only underlines the total autocracy he exercises. Its reminiscent of various kings and Tsars in the nineteenth century as they desperately tried to hold off democracy.
If the revolution falters now… which with the army and the vast security apparatus still in place it might -then the regime will be forced to be really vicious in its repression as China was. It certainly would need to be really Budapest '56…tanks in the streets stuff and willingness to shoot people down in the streets on a large scale.
But would Europe and the United States tolerate the full force of a counter revolution? is it even possible to impose power like this at all any longer? Despite the power of social networking the government has managed to shut down all mobile networks and the internet yet keep TV. Can they keep that up? What is certain is after 30 years the regime will do whatever it has to to try and survive in some form or other.
The next days are going to be momentous. Its going to shake every power structure now in place right through the region and beyond. Revolution is catching!
@sean – yes, agree completely. It does depend on how much of that transiting oil is for europe. I have been unable to find out exactly what proportion of the suez oil that is. More digging around on the oil drum might help.
But as G says, apart from the oil, which we can agree is of some importance – though perhaps not as huge as it used to be – the area is vital for other reasons too.
Whoever comes out in control of the country, the americans will make sure they are under their control. Be it economic, military or diplomatic, a weak point will be found and exploited.
So in my cynicism, I think the aim must be for any new government to be maybe better than the old, but still be a tool of the USA.
Like the UK where you can have your economic system any colour you like, as long as it is right-wing-market-capitalism.
Interesting post over on the tickerforum yesterday, postulating that the situation in Egypt is a direct result of the QE in USA, effectively exporting most of the inflation to supplier nations while retaining little of it at home.
Not sure I agree – haven't thought it through properly – but the post is at http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=178559 and certainly worth some consideration.
(Note to the unwary – tickerforum comments are mostly extreme-right-libertarian in viewpoint, and can be hard to stomach. But there are some people there, with interesting economic views. )
Excellent comments! It's astounding what people know.
There is a bewildering spectrum of possible outcomes to the disturbances in the Middle East. Having recently watched Robert Newman's History of Oil (thank you forensicstatistician), I have a greater appreciation of the relationship between the USA and the Middle East.
My naive prediction is that the USA will work quietly in the background to reduce the maelstrom to a gentle simmer, unless Iran gets involved. Iranian encroachment is the perfect excuse for the USA (with Israeli assistance) to defend their right to maintain a colossal trade deficit, courtesy of the petro-dollar. Just what the medic ordered for an American president declining in popularity, a temporary reprieve for the bipartisan squabbles, and the public's disapproving gaze averted from the banks' shenanigans.
It will be fascinating in the coming days to examine the connections between the Middle East and our favourite financial institutions. Let's see who 'takes a position' and market meddles manically.
Things are moving. Unrest in Egypt | Page 5 | Liveblog live blogging | Reuters.com]
What fed up people look like
I put up a Golem quote and link on Depfa etc on the Lisa O'Carroll latest at the Guardian.frog2
Thank You Dave!
Hi Golem, posting at the G etc is time-consuming stuff, but the Irish threads particularly are worth slipping a link into from time to time…
Not aimed at you but a hint to my fellow CiFfers PrincessCC et al!
I enjoyed this youtube — Dylan Rattigan on Inside Job, interviews with Wm Black (Savings&Loans) and film director Charles Ferguson — HERE.
I witnessed the S&L Fraud unfolding in the late 70's when I was a small cog in the then very simple moneybroking and FX world. Professor Black was one of the investigators, and I learn that a thousand people WERE prosecuted from that clip.What a contrast with today.
Keep up the good work,your dedication is much appreciated!
I recorded my new song friday. While listening to my 'attempt' at singing I surfed the Egyptian protesters and came across a video with folks chanting in key (unlike me) and in time so I blagged it. I wrote to the guy to ask permission and translation and wish good luck but I think he's still out chanting.
Anyway it's called The Game HERE top of the list of songs. Many thanks to Mr Shigemitsu or Rich (can't remember which one of you posted it first) for posting the Rolling Stone article. As mentioned before, sadly I've figured out they're addicts to The Game.
How can an addict stop?
They can't.
My minds a rumbaling with pet dog regulators now or ENABLERS, or the ZBDS MOST WANTED.
Anybody got the list of the top 100, or enough for a deck of cards?
"So come and join the party 'for it gets too late,
And they storm the gate,
Put my head on a plate,
What a £$%£ing disgrace,
Today".
ZBDS
dave
prof black is great
i saw a lecture that he did, really fantastic
I do not profess to know much about the Middle East at all but from what I understand the main religion in Egypt is overwhelmingy Sunni Islam with Sufism in second place way ahead of Shi'a with only a few thousand followers so I find it hard to see how Iran could have much of an influence.
I would have thought the real choice is between a secular government which the US should find easy to deal with or a more Muslim Brotherhood style Islamist one which it won't and which also may cause problems for the US and Israel as regards the Gaza border etc.
One thing is for certain, I feel. The Mubarak government will fall. As I just heard on aljazeera, in a stand-off someone has to back down and it doesn't look like the people are about to any time soon.
Meanwhile, news from Egypt will provide perfect cover for what happens in Greece next week :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/30/greek-debt-crisis-imf-talks
"The European Union is engaged in frantic behind the scenes talks to reduce Greece's debt as international monitors fly into Athens this week. There is growing concern that the eurozone's weakest state will be unable to end its worst crisis in decades, without a sovereign default.
Plans to buy back Greek debt at a discount – a scenario that economists call restructuring by stealth – are being given "urgent consideration," bankers and EU officials say."
The protesters are chanting "The People Want an End to the Regime".
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@JamieGriffiths
There is at least one more option that nobody is discussing. The army.
Historically, the Egyptian army has pretty much held the nation together during transitions.
It is as yet unclear the army can and will do the same today as it is unclear whether they can themselves hold things together within the army itself.
@guidoromero
Excellent point.
As I said, I'm out of my element here and my comment last night was a bit reductive. There are a million ways this can play out. Guess all we can do is watch and see.
French, British Banks Have Most Exposure to Egyptian Loans
Interesting to note that Moody's have downgraded Egypt to "Negative" from "Stable". "This has resulted from escalating political tensions in the country following the recent uprising in Tunisia, with large-scale anti-government protests taking place," it said.
Glad to see the bankers showing solidarity with the people!