Had another interesting conversation about Iran and Islamic unrest with the person who used to work with one of Europe’s larger Intelligence Services. We talked about Iran.
The Iranian government is getting worried apparently. And what they are most concerned about are the tribes. The government in Iran, like most governments in the area, is a city government who, for all it rages against western notions is in fact intimately tied to the most central of western notions, that of the nation state. It is why the central, national governments we in the west deal with, often have great difficulty extending their effective power beyond the capital cities and do so only with an elite secret police or ‘revolutionary Guard’ of some sort. Such elite forces are an attempt to create a non-tribal loyalty. More often that not they fail at the critical moment and melt away.
The tribal leaders are a real power in most of the nations which stretch across North Africa all the way to Pakistan. What changed Libya was the intervention of the tribes, such as the Al-Zuwayya, in the oil producing regions of the country. They threatened to stop the oil and presto – end game.
Western analysts are well aware that loyalties to tribal identities are far more powerful than national identities but sadly the Operations side of Western Services often are not. This has been particularly true in the CIA whose very good analysts are almost always totally ignored by the field operations side. Which is why tehe CIA is so often, as it is now, behind the curve.
Tribal identity is strong and always, but always, takes precedence over national identity. In Iran the powerful tribes who will ultimately decide what happens next, are the Baluch in the South East next to Pakistan, the Bakhtiari in the South West, who control all the Iranian oil and gas fields and pipelines and the Kurds in the north.
It is worth remembering that even the men of the Revolutionary Guard have tribal allegiances. The tribal leaders can be expected to apply pressure now on the Mullahs.
Besides watching teh tribes, the the next thing is to see which Western Nations are successful in negotiating new oil and gas deals with Libya. If Europe seals good deals with the tribes and whoever takes nominal national power and IF they negotiate those in Euro’s not Dollars, then expect fireworks from the US. AND expect Saudi to start to become very worried indeed. I do not think Saudi is secure and I do not think the CIA is on top of events there.
Thanks Golem, very interesting. As an aside I've kind of found it amusing that we seem to have seen quite a few old photos of Blair shaking hands with a lot of these dictators – he's almost like an Evil Bert character 🙂
A curiosity: has the end game been reached in Libya yet? You speak as if Gadaffi is finished. Gaddafi seems to be prepared to go for the ultimate end game of 'kill or be killed',and unleash a full scale civil war if necessary,and of course he has access to considerable weaponry, courtesy of the recent rehabilitation.
Of course, even if he maintains control in the short term, all will be changed but the outcome still seems uncertain. If he goes (or stays) in what appears to
be a major change from the moderately peaceful processes in Tunisia and Egypt, one can only then wonder what will happen in the other places such as Algeria and Morocco. Will it harden resolve and determination and solidify grudges and finally, will a major bloodbath create huge tensions in the 'big ones' -Iran and Saudi Arabia. I suppose I am asking- will these events unleash some effect which may lead to (probably diversionary) wars in these areas? And what about the US, which still wields the big military operational capacity in the region. They will have to develop a coherent policy in what seems to be very fluid circumstances-especially if violence escalates.
Yes, let's hope so but let's also hope that the new tribal bosses are not even more despotic then whoever's in charge at the moment.
Interesting use of the word contagion on sky/BBC news, when referring to the revolts in the Arab world. Oxford dictionary /1. spreading of disease by contact 2. moral corruption.
Same thought just occurred to me StevieFinn.
I also nearly laughed tea out of my nose when Cameron was described as positioning himself as a 'torch bearer for democracy'.
On an unrelated note – what's happened to RichGB? And 24K? Has Golem sent them off on Black Ops?
I know this is supposed to be why Iran is concerned at events but surely the fact that Cameron is in Cairo at this auspicious time cannot be coincidence . Is he there at the behest of USA or perhaps EU , what can he be negotiating for ? perhaps with no obvious leader being able to take over in Libya it may be that that the Arab Socialist Union could be revived ( Do we all remember that 1970's dead duck ) With Egypt going in to restore order to their Arab brothers in the country next door, Another possibilty ,to my mind is that the new regime allowed Iranian warships to through the Suez canal for the first time . This has not amused Israel and possibly the USA has sent Cameron to get re assurance about Iranian rights of passage . On the other hand ( I am running out of hands ) it may be that UK /EU banks are facing huge losses( Egyptian bonds are now junk ) and more re assurance is being sought. An intriguing visit I think . Those are my thoughts /questions ,what are yours ?
Here is an interesting headline from Reuters this evening:
UniCredit not worried about impact from Libya
* CEO Ghizzoni says not worried for the group
* Libyan investors hold around 7.5 pct of Italian bank
* UniCredit shares down almost 6 pct, underperform sector (Recasts with comments from UniCredit CEO)
MILAN, Feb 21 (Reuters) – Italy's top bank UniCredit (CRDI.MI), 7.5-percent-owned by Libyan investors, is not concerned about the impact of current turmoil on the group.
"We are closely watching developments on the turmoil in Libya because this is a difficult situation, but we are not worried for the group," Chief Executive Officer Federico Ghizzoni told reporters on Monday.
Separately, a top UniCredit executive said Libyan investors were acting "rationally" while protests sweep across the North African country.
Shares in UniCredit sank nearly 6 percent on Monday, sharply underperforming the Europe STOXX 600 banking index .SX7P as investors worried that the Libyan investors may offload their holdings in the Italian bank. "Our Libyan shareholders are behaving extremely rationally at the moment," Theodor Weimer, the head of UniCredit's German arm Hvb, said on the sidelines of a lunch event in Frankfurt.
Libyan shareholders hiked their investment in UniCredit as the bank tapped the market for additional cash in the wake of the credit crisis.
"We have said we do not differentiate between good and bad money," Weimer said referring to the capital provided by Libya.
The Central Bank of Libya is UniCredit's No.3 shareholder with a nearly 5 percent stake. The Libyan Investment Authority holds another 2.6 percent.
I am sure the clients and shareholders of UniCredit and its subsidiaries – Pioneer, HVB and Bank Austria are delighted to be contributing to the wealth of a sovereign that has been mercilessly killing its own citizens over the last few days.
Regards,
WhistleblowerIRL – UniCredit Ireland's EX Risk-Manager
Time to look to Italy again? Berlusconi's recent indictment smacks of an imminent reshuffle by the powers that be. Maybe they're looking to put a more reliable sheriff in charge for when that train load of debts arrives at the Statzione Termini?
Reenecharles: I was thinking exactly the same as you. What is Cameron up to in Eygpt? He was certainly quick off the mark, but as a concern for the UK or other interests? Very puzzling, perhaps someone here could shine a light?
Maybe he is looking for a re-run of the Suez adventure from the fifties?
This time no Foster-Dulles to get in the way; and don't expect any joined-up think ing frmo Hillary….
<>
@brucibaby
According to the Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1359316/Prime-Minister-David-Cameron-takes-arms-dealers-Egypt-promote-democracy.html
Jamie G, I've been lurking lately. By the time I've finished digesting information there has been something else to read and so have been more than happy reading other commentators excellent thoughts rather than chipping in like the dad in shameless.
It was great meeting G, Hawkeye and everybody else. The film was good but in the end lacked anger slightly at the end unlike UKuncut who have a clear sharp agenda against the financial class. Should have been more FUmentary than documentary. My buddy came out with a clear understanding of a CDO though so as an informative film it was excellent. the Robinhood tax ad was good too. Be nice on prime time tv. Bet that would take some cash.
Been writing new banksta rap What you gonna do? and for you metalheads – Theme From ZBDS. I'm sure you're coming on the 26th you can help with music videos if we can all meet up (I have plans).
While talking to Hawkeye's mate he was very keen on Positive Money rather than telling people about the fraud etc.
Without another option it's no good just complaining.
I'm of the opinion that the masses need education through films, music 🙂 , word of mouth, blogs etc otherwise nothing will get changed. If nobody has the information, awareness to be outraged then even the universes most perfect trade system will never get a look in. Meeting others of the same opinion made me see that everybody has a different angle, passion, expertise on what is a big subject and watching Cameron talking about freedom it is obvious that it is down to us, the people to take our passion and our angle on the issue and push it a little more and more and more. As that's all that we can do. I was going to say that when you and Rebecca were sitting in a tree, d i s c u s s i n g.
Both types of action are good. Go do 'em. Discussion should be the prelude to the manifestation of action. If discussion just remains that it is pointless. So I hope everbody will make the effort next month.
As for RoboLink, I think he's on recharge.
I notice Diane Abbott commenting below the line in a Guardian article about the development of democracy in North Africa and the Middle east.
here is her comment:
"The writer is correct to criticise the soft bigotry of low expectations that the West manifested to the Arab World. It is shameful how governments of both political parties, here in Britain, propped up Arab dictatorships. And it is even more shameful that, even as Libya is in flames, Cameron is out in the Middle East with eight arms dealers in his entourage."
Such an appearance by a senior MP in a non-privileged position in a mainstream media outlet is surely interesting. It suggests to me that her reading of the times is that there is a real problem with our elected representatives from both right and left being seen as detached, elitist, unaccountable and held in widespread contempt.
Is she trying to address the problem?
Diane Abott is certainly smart and astute enough to understand the rather rich ironies in the situation we see unfolding before us, and the awkward questions it raises about British 'democracy'.
Meanwhile it is almost embarrassing to see the brutally blunt antics of Dave, hawking and flogging the replacements for the equipment used up in the riots before the bodies have even been collected for burial. Got to admire him for his spotting of an opportunity! Our 'prime minister'-our representaive in the international world- is nothing but a salesman for a frequently criminally implicated 'business'.
Doesn't that make you feel good to be British.
But we shouldn't be surprised when we think of his 80's predecessor, Thatcher, and the way she managed to place her deep thinking, gun running, salesagent son in a juicy position to receive the handsome commissions from the Saudi 'businessmen'.
Still, no fear, there was always the ever pliant Mr Blair to close down any investigation into these 'affairs of state' or cosy up with Ghaddaffi.
Someone mentioned 'shameless'. Don't watch it myself but one can only think how well Cameron fits in here. Breathtakingly so.